Australia
Narrative updated. “BoM warns this El Niño could rank among the strongest since 1950 — and climate change may amplify its bite”
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has declared a strong El Niño, with forecasters warning it could be the most intense since 1950 and that climate change may amplify its effects. The canonical El Niño signal for Australia is drier and hotter, and measured temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +1.1°C above normal, though the +75% rainfall anomaly in that window is not meaningful because it falls in the climatological dry season. The key risk ahead is a delayed or weakened northern wet season, which would stress agriculture, water storages, and fire preparedness into early 2027.
51 mm vs 29.1 mm normal
The July–October window is Australia's climatological dry season, so the measured +75% rainfall anomaly is not meaningful; the key outlook is for a delayed or weakened onset of the northern wet season.
16.62°C mean vs 15.58°C normal
Mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +1.1°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the strong El Niño warming projected in the articles.
El Niño typically makes Australia drier. Observed rainfall is running +75% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-27.0°, 133.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Australia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Grain harvest is expected on schedule, but a delayed wet season would cut northern pasture growth and summer crop planting.
Below-average inflows are likely into eastern and northern storages as the wet season onset is delayed.
Heat stress and smoke exposure are likely to increase, with drier conditions also raising risks of waterborne and vector-borne disease in some regions.
Hotter, drier conditions are expected to lift electricity demand for cooling and raise bushfire risk to transmission lines.
Warmer ocean temperatures may shift fish stocks and disrupt coastal fishing, though port operations are flagged as a concern in winter-spring 2026.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Australia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought drier than average conditions to much of eastern Australia and a delayed northern wet season.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño contributed to widespread drought, heat records, and an early and severe bushfire season in southern Australia.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with severe drought and major crop losses across eastern Australia.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSBoM forecasts strong El Niño and warns climate change could amplify effects on Australia
Australia warns El Nino weather pattern set to be strongest in decades
Strongest El Niño in Decades Declared for Australia as Dry Season Heat Builds
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has declared a strong El Niño, with forecasters warning it could be the most intense since 1950 and that climate change may amplify its effects. The canonical El Niño
How El Niño will shape Australian port operations in winter-spring 2026
Australian forecasters: Current El Niño could be among most intense since 1950
Nearby
Other countries in Australia and New Zealand