elniohno
ENSO PHASE El Niño conditions, very strong El Niño, very strong
El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The Pacific climate cycle that shifts global rainfall and temperature. NOAA declares an episode after 5 consecutive overlapping seasons beyond ±0.5°C.

4 consecutive seasons past threshold

 ONI · JAS 2026 +2.2↗ ONI, last 24 seasons
Oceanic Niño Index

3-month running mean of sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (°C). ≥ +0.5 is El Niño territory; ≤ −0.5 is La Niña.

+0.36 vs previous season
NOAA UPDATED 10 Oct 2026
Regions

Where the impact concentrates.

UN sub-regions ranked by mean composite score. El Niño is regional by nature — the same event dries Southern Africa while soaking East Africa.

Oceania

Micronesia6.6
7 countries · 529k people
1 severe 5 high
Melanesia6.2
5 countries · 13.2M people
5 high
Polynesia4.1
10 countries · 661k people
3 high
Australia and New Zealand3.6
5 countries · 32.9M people
2 high

Americas

South America6.2
14 countries · 438M people
3 severe 8 high
Central America5.9
7 countries · 53.2M people
4 high
Caribbean5.2
28 countries · 43.6M people
1 severe 14 high
North America3.7
7 countries · 516M people
2 high

Africa

Southern Africa6.2
5 countries · 74.0M people
5 high
Eastern Africa5.5
20 countries · 500M people
2 severe 12 high
Western Africa4.9
17 countries · 465M people
3 severe 2 high
Middle Africa4.3
10 countries · 232M people
1 severe 1 high
Northern Africa3.4
7 countries · 276M people
1 high

Asia

South-Eastern Asia6
11 countries · 700M people
1 severe 7 high
Southern Asia6
9 countries · 2.08B people
3 severe 3 high
Central Asia4.2
5 countries · 83.6M people
No severe or high impact
Eastern Asia3.6
8 countries · 1.62B people
1 high
Western Asia3.6
17 countries · 314M people
1 high

Europe

Southeast Europe4.1
9 countries · 43.8M people
No severe or high impact
Western Europe3.8
8 countries · 192M people
No severe or high impact
Central Europe3.7
6 countries · 73.6M people
No severe or high impact
Southern Europe3
10 countries · 132M people
No severe or high impact
Eastern Europe2.5
4 countries · 194M people
No severe or high impact
Northern Europe2.2
16 countries · 109M people
No severe or high impact

Antarctic

Antarctic2
5 countries ·
No severe or high impact