Belgium
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Belgium's summer ran 2.8°C hotter and 40% drier than normal as a record-strength El Niño peaked”
Belgian weather through the 2026 summer bore the fingerprints of an exceptionally strong El Niño, with reanalysis showing rainfall 40% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures 2.8°C above normal for 9 July to 6 October. Articles from The Brussels Times, Carbon Brief and NDTV describe the event as potentially the most intense in more than a century, supercharging European heat and wildfires even though El Niño's canonical signal for Belgium is weak. A September study further warns the current El Niño could contribute to hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths globally, underscoring the health dimension of the heat anomaly recorded here.
122.1 mm vs 204.6 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Belgium from 9 July to 6 October 2026 running about 40% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the dry, wildfire-prone European summer the articles attribute partly to El Niño.
News source19.42°C mean vs 16.61°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were 2.8°C above normal, matching the extreme summer heat and wildfire conditions the articles link to the strong El Niño.
News sourceThe May–September growing season is expected to close on schedule, but the hot, dry summer likely stressed late-season crops and pasture ahead of the August–October harvest.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (50.8°, 4.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Belgium and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Late-season crops and pasture likely suffered moisture stress from the 40% rainfall deficit and 2.8°C heat anomaly, with harvest quality and yields at risk.
Below-normal summer rainfall and high evaporation are expected to have drawn down reservoirs, canals and groundwater, tightening supply for irrigation and navigation.
The 2.8°C temperature anomaly points to elevated heat stress, especially for the elderly and outdoor workers, with warmer conditions also favouring vector- and water-borne disease risks.
Heat-driven cooling demand likely raised summer electricity use, while low river levels can constrain once-through cooling and barge delivery of fuels to power plants.
Warmer inland and coastal waters may push fish into deeper or cooler zones, while low river flows could disrupt spawning habitat and inland aquaculture.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Belgium responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions amplified global temperature records and European heat extremes, consistent with the hotter, drier Belgian summer pattern seen again in 2026.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño that coincided with record global heat and European summer warmth, contributing to drought stress and wildfire risk in western Europe including Belgium.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events of the 20th century, associated with anomalous European warmth and a mild, wet Belgian winter, though direct Belgian impacts were limited by the weak canonical signal.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Record El Niño Leaves Belgium 2.8°C Hotter and 40% Drier as Summer Heat and Wildfire Risk Surge
Belgian weather through the 2026 summer bore the fingerprints of an exceptionally strong El Niño, with reanalysis showing rainfall 40% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures 2.8°C above norm
Nearby
Neighbouring countries