Bulgaria
Score moved 4 → 5 . “Danube at record lows, Kozloduy throttled back and a Super El Niño still building”
Bulgaria's summer and early autumn of 2026 were exceptionally dry, with measured rainfall 76% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures 2.2°C above average. The Danube fell to record-low levels in July, exposing mammoth remains on the riverbed and forcing the Kozloduy nuclear plant to cut output in August because of insufficient cooling water. Scientists warn that the strengthening El Niño, described in European coverage as a possible Super El Niño, is likely to keep extreme weather and heat risks elevated into the coming seasons.
38.2 mm vs 159.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall from 9 July to 6 October 2026 was 76% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the record-low Danube levels reported in July and the drought-driven nuclear output cuts in August.
News source22.26°C mean vs 20.1°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran 2.2°C above normal, matching the wider European heat signal described in the Super El Niño coverage.
News sourceThe May–September growing season proceeded on schedule, but the extreme July–October rainfall deficit likely cut yields in rain-fed summer crops and left soils dry ahead of autumn sowing.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (43.0°, 25.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bulgaria and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rain-fed summer crops and autumn sowing are likely to suffer from the 76% rainfall deficit and depleted soil moisture, with yield losses expected in the driest districts.
Record-low Danube levels and shrinking reservoirs are expected to strain municipal and irrigation supplies, prompting calls for water-saving measures.
Prolonged heat and drought are expected to raise heat-stress risks, worsen air quality and increase pressure on water and food safety in affected areas.
The Kozloduy nuclear plant already cut output in August because of the Danube drought, and further reductions are possible if river levels stay low.
Low river flows and warmer water are likely to stress Danube and inland fish stocks, reducing catches and harming spawning habitats.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bulgaria responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions coincided with drought and heat stress in the region, echoing the low Danube levels and energy-sector strain seen in 2026.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to hot, dry summers across the Balkans, with lower Danube flows and reduced crop yields in Bulgaria.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought warmer-than-average conditions to southeastern Europe, stressing water resources and agriculture in Bulgaria.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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