Malta
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “El Niño's fingerprint on Malta is a hotter sea and a stormier autumn ahead”
The UN and international forecasters warn that a strong El Niño is now in place and will drive extreme weather worldwide, with Malta's own meteorologists pointing to unusually high sea temperatures as the local signature. Measured conditions bear this out: the 9 July–6 October 2026 window ran 2.7°C above normal and 27% below normal rainfall, though that period is Malta's dry season and the rainfall figure carries little weight on its own. The practical concern is the coming rainy season, where a warm Mediterranean is expected to fuel heavier autumn storms and complicate the start of the agricultural year.
65.3 mm vs 89.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 at 27% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Malta's climatologically dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming autumn rains rather than the percentage itself.
News source28.3°C mean vs 25.6°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 2.7°C above normal, consistent with the article reports of higher sea temperatures around the Maltese islands and an elevated risk of intense autumn storms.
News sourceThe May–September growing season and the August–October harvest passed without a reported calendar shift, but the hot, dry summer and warm sea surface temperatures are expected to sharpen the risk to late crops and to the timing of the first autumn rains.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (35.8°, 14.6°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Malta and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A hotter, drier growing season and a delayed or erratic onset of autumn rains are likely to stress late crops and irrigation supplies during the August–October harvest.
With the summer recharge window effectively dry, the coming autumn rains will be decisive for reservoir and groundwater replenishment, and a late onset would extend pressure on supply.
Prolonged heat increases heat-stress risk for outdoor workers and the elderly, and warm, stormy autumn conditions can favour vector- and water-borne disease.
Sustained heat raises cooling demand and peak load through the shoulder months, while autumn storm risk adds exposure for coastal and grid infrastructure.
Above-normal sea temperatures are expected to shift the distribution of commercially important species and raise stress on inshore stocks during the spawning period.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Malta responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño amplified global temperature records and Mediterranean marine heat, consistent with the higher sea temperatures and autumn storm risk reported for Malta in 2026.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with record global heat and a notably warm Mediterranean, contributing to a hot Maltese summer and erratic early-winter rainfall.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with a warm Mediterranean and an unsettled, storm-heavy autumn across the central Mediterranean, including Malta.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Warm sea, dry summer: Malta braces for an El Niño-charged autumn
The UN and international forecasters warn that a strong El Niño is now in place and will drive extreme weather worldwide, with Malta's own meteorologists pointing to unusually high sea temperatures as
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Nearby
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