Morocco
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “A super El Niño is building offshore — and Morocco's next rainy season is squarely in its path”
Morocco has just come through a dry season that ran 39% below the 1991–2020 rainfall normal with temperatures 1.8°C above average, and several outlets warn the strong El Niño now developing could keep the coming November–March rains below normal. A study reported by Morocco World News links strong El Niño years to suppressed Moroccan rainfall in 2026–2027, while The North Africa Post and Yabiladi frame the event as a renewed drought cycle for the kingdom. The Conversation cautions that North Africa could swing between drought and floods, so the risk is not simply less rain but a more erratic start to the agricultural year.
43 mm vs 70.8 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 39% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window is Morocco's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the real concern is the articles' warning that the strong El Niño could suppress the coming November–March rains.
News source25.42°C mean vs 23.67°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were 1.8°C above normal, consistent with the warming and drying pattern the articles associate with a strong El Niño.
News sourceWith wheat harvest already completed in May–June, the El Niño signal is expected to delay and weaken the November–March winter rains that determine sowing and pasture recovery for the next cereal season.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (32.0°, -5.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Morocco and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed or reduced November–March rains would push back cereal sowing and cut yields in the rain-fed wheat and barley belt, compounding pressure on already stressed pastures.
Reservoir and dam recharge depends on winter inflows, so a suppressed rainy season would deepen drawdown on already depleted storage and tighten urban and irrigation allocations.
Hotter, drier conditions favour heat stress, water-scarcity-related hygiene risks and dust episodes, with nutrition risk rising if the cereal season underperforms.
Lower reservoir levels reduce hydropower output and raise reliance on imported fossil generation, while hotter anomalies lift summer cooling demand.
Warming coastal waters and shifting upwelling associated with strong El Niño can displace sardine and small pelagic stocks that anchor Morocco's fishing industry.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Morocco responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño years have repeatedly been linked in Moroccan reporting to below-normal winter rainfall and renewed drought cycles.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions aligned with a multi-year drought in Morocco, stressing rain-fed agriculture and urban water supplies.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño coincided with one of Morocco's driest winters on record, sharply reducing cereal output and reservoir recharge.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSStrong El Niño Puts Morocco on Drought Alert as Winter Rains Fail to Materialise
Morocco has just come through a dry season that ran 39% below the 1991–2020 rainfall normal with temperatures 1.8°C above average, and several outlets warn the strong El Niño now developing could keep
El Niño threatens Morocco with renewed drought
El Niño’s Potential Return Puts Morocco on Alert for New Drought Cycle
Nearby
Neighbouring countries