Chad
Chad is in the path of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with UN and UNICEF reporting that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries face exposure to its impacts. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 66% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures roughly 3.4°C above normal, though that window is Chad's climatological dry season, so the operative signal is the drier tendency El Niño imposes on the coming rains. Health facilities such as a small hospital in Chad are already being cited as models of climate resilience as the country braces for weaker rains, heat stress and disease pressure through the July–September peak.
Iran
A strong El Niño is forecast to collide with the economic and logistical shocks of the Iran war, with analysts warning the combination could supercharge global food and energy insecurity. For Iran itself, the canonical El Niño signal points to a wetter winter, but the articles focus on how war disruption to trade, inputs and shipping may blunt any agricultural benefit. Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +2.2°C above normal, and the coming November–March rains will be the decisive test for the winter wheat season.
Sector by sector
Weaker, more erratic rains during the June–September season are expected to cut millet, sorghum and pasture yields, deepening the June–August lean season and threatening the October–November harvest.
AgricultureWar-driven input and export disruptions risk outweighing any El Niño rainfall benefit for winter wheat, with regional food shortages flagged across Asia.
Below-normal rainfall and high evaporation from +3.4°C heat are likely to lower surface water and recharge in the Lake Chad basin, straining pastoral and household supplies.
Water & floodingA wetter-than-normal El Niño winter could ease drought stress in southern Iran, but conflict damage to infrastructure may limit how much of that rain can be stored and used.
Heat stress, water scarcity and disrupted water quality are expected to raise malnutrition, cholera and other waterborne disease risks, the concern driving hospital-level resilience planning.
HealthFood insecurity linked to the El Niño–war combination raises malnutrition risk, while above-normal heat adds to heat-stress and disease burdens.
Heat-driven cooling demand and reduced hydropower inflows are likely to tighten electricity supply, already limited outside N'Djamena.
EnergyEl Niño-driven shifts in hydropower availability and cooling demand interact with war-related energy market volatility, raising supply risk.
Shrinking and warming water bodies in the Lake Chad basin are expected to reduce fish stocks and catch sizes for lakeside and riverine communities.
FisheriesWar-related disruption to Gulf shipping and port operations poses a greater near-term risk to fisheries than El Niño ocean warming itself.