Chad
Narrative updated. “A small hospital in Chad is already bracing for the health fallout of a record-strength El Niño”
Chad is in the path of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with UN and UNICEF reporting that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries face exposure to its impacts. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 66% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures roughly 3.4°C above normal, though that window is Chad's climatological dry season, so the operative signal is the drier tendency El Niño imposes on the coming rains. Health facilities such as a small hospital in Chad are already being cited as models of climate resilience as the country braces for weaker rains, heat stress and disease pressure through the July–September peak.
57.9 mm vs 172.2 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall running about 66% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Chad's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the drier-than-normal tendency El Niño imposes on the coming rains.
News source34.23°C mean vs 30.84°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 3.4°C above normal, consistent with the strong warming the articles associate with this El Niño event.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Chad drier. Observed rainfall is running -66% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.0°, 19.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Chad and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Weaker, more erratic rains during the June–September season are expected to cut millet, sorghum and pasture yields, deepening the June–August lean season and threatening the October–November harvest.
Below-normal rainfall and high evaporation from +3.4°C heat are likely to lower surface water and recharge in the Lake Chad basin, straining pastoral and household supplies.
Heat stress, water scarcity and disrupted water quality are expected to raise malnutrition, cholera and other waterborne disease risks, the concern driving hospital-level resilience planning.
Heat-driven cooling demand and reduced hydropower inflows are likely to tighten electricity supply, already limited outside N'Djamena.
Shrinking and warming water bodies in the Lake Chad basin are expected to reduce fish stocks and catch sizes for lakeside and riverine communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Chad responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Recent strong El Niño episode that contributed to regional rainfall variability and humanitarian strain in Chad and the wider Sahel.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño linked to drier conditions and food insecurity across the Sahel, including Chad, with pastoral and cereal-producing areas hardest hit.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events of the 20th century, associated with suppressed Sahelian rainfall and poor harvests across Chad and its neighbours.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSUNICEF Fast Facts: Over 347 million children in nearly 100 countries will be exposed to one of the strongest El Niño events on record
Chad Braces for a Drier, Hotter El Niño as Record Event Bears Down
Chad is in the path of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with UN and UNICEF reporting that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries face exposure to its impacts. Reanaly
Q&A: AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill warns about El Niño ‘whiplash’
This meteorologist is expecting an El Niño whiplash
Nearby
Neighbouring countries