Central African Republic
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Strong El Niño meets a season that started on time — the test comes at harvest”
The September 2026 inter-agency ENSO report confirms a strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, and warns that tens of millions across vulnerable regions could face acute hunger, prompting WFP to scale up preparedness plans. For the Central African Republic the canonical El Niño rainfall signal is weak, and FEWS NET reported the season beginning normally with mostly average to above-average rainfall in bimodal areas. Measured conditions nonetheless show rainfall about 22% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October and temperatures 1.1°C above normal, a warm, somewhat dry signature that keeps the October–November harvest and the lean season under close watch.
518.5 mm vs 660.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 22% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the more meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains.
News source25.08°C mean vs 23.99°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 1.1°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño conditions described in the September 2026 inter-agency ENSO report.
News sourceThe rainy season and June–July planting proceeded broadly on schedule, with FEWS NET reporting a normal start and mostly average to above-average rainfall in bimodal areas, leaving the October–November harvest and the June–August lean season as the key windows to watch.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (7.0°, 21.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Central African Republic and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Planting went ahead on schedule with near-normal early rains, but a 22% rainfall deficit and above-normal heat could trim yields for the October–November harvest and worsen the June–August lean season.
Below-normal rainfall and elevated evaporation are expected to lower river and borehole levels, tightening dry-season water access for both households and livestock.
Above-normal temperatures combined with lean-season food gaps raise the risk of heat stress, malnutrition and waterborne disease as safe water sources dwindle.
Reduced river flow is likely to cut output from hydro-dependent power sources, increasing reliance on costly thermal generation and fuelwood.
Lower river levels and warmer water in the Congo and Ubangi systems may reduce fish catches and disrupt inland fishing livelihoods during the dry months.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Central African Republic responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
The most recent strong El Niño contributed to global heat records and regional rainfall variability, with WFP and partners warning of heightened acute hunger risk in vulnerable countries.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions coincided with regional drought stress, crop shortfalls and elevated acute malnutrition in parts of Central Africa, including CAR.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record was associated with erratic rains and food insecurity across Central Africa, straining already fragile humanitarian conditions in CAR.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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World Food Programme ramps up preparedness and response plans as El Niño threatens to push tens of millions into acute hunger
Strong El Niño, Weak Local Signal: CAR's Season Starts on Time but Runs Warm and Dry
The September 2026 inter-agency ENSO report confirms a strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, and warns that tens of millions across vulnerable regions could face acute hunger, prompting WFP to scale up p
Nearby
Neighbouring countries