Sudan
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Nile banks run dry as El Niño parches Sudan's farms and stretches the lean season”
A regional El Niño Preparedness Alert and WMO guidance point to below-normal rainfall across the northern Greater Horn of Africa, with Sudan squarely in the drier zone. Measured conditions confirm the signal: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 3% below the 1991–2020 normal during the climatological dry season, while mean temperatures were roughly 3.2°C above normal. Reporting from the Nile banks describes farms lying barren as the rains fail, deepening hunger and raising the risk that the lean season extends well beyond its usual June–August window.
128.1 mm vs 132.2 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was about 3% below the 1991–2020 normal, but this window is Sudan's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the forecast of below-normal rains for the coming season.
News source34.17°C mean vs 30.97°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran about 3.2°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño and with reports of parched, heat-stressed farmland along the Nile.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Sudan drier. Observed rainfall is running -3% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.0°, 30.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Sudan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains and extreme heat are expected to delay planting and cut yields of sorghum, millet and irrigated crops, with farms along the Nile already reported barren.
Reduced rainfall and dry Nile banks are likely to lower river levels and recharge, straining drinking-water supplies for both people and livestock.
Heat stress, water scarcity and worsening food insecurity are expected to raise malnutrition and waterborne disease risks, particularly among displaced populations.
Lower Nile flows are projected to cut hydropower output at dams such as Merowe, while heat drives up electricity demand for cooling.
Falling river levels and shrinking floodplains are expected to reduce fish habitat and catch sizes for riverine and wetland fishing communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Sudan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again aligned with drier-than-normal signals in the region, compounding humanitarian needs in a country already affected by conflict and displacement.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño coincided with below-normal rains in Sudan, stressing rain-fed agriculture and pasture and worsening food security in already vulnerable areas.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought markedly drier conditions to Sudan and the Sahel, contributing to crop failure and food insecurity across the region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Neighbouring countries