Eritrea
Score moved 9 → 8 . “WMO and FAO both flag the Horn of Africa as El Niño's sharpest rainfall loser — Eritrea's Kiremt season is already running dry”
WMO's August 2026 statement and ReliefWeb's Eastern Africa preparedness alert place Eritrea squarely inside the Horn of Africa region where El Niño is expected to suppress seasonal rainfall, and reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 confirms rainfall 18% below the 1991–2020 normal. Temperatures over the same window ran 2.8°C above normal, intensifying evaporation and heat stress on both people and crops. FAO's July 2026 call for anticipatory action warns that cereal production and food security across the continent are at risk, with the Meher harvest now likely to be delayed by about a month.
302.5 mm vs 369.4 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall 18% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño signal of weaker Kiremt rains over Eritrea.
News source23.21°C mean vs 20.41°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran 2.8°C above normal, an extreme anomaly that amplifies evaporation stress on soils and crops.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Eritrea drier. Observed rainfall is running -18% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.0°, 39.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Eritrea and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal Kiremt rainfall and a delayed Meher harvest are expected to cut sorghum, millet and maize yields, with FAO warning of rising food insecurity across the continent.
Reduced seasonal recharge is likely to lower reservoir and borehole levels, straining urban supply in Asmara and pastoral water points in the lowlands.
WMO warns of escalating El Niño health impacts, with heat stress, waterborne disease from scarce and contaminated supplies, and worsening child malnutrition as key risks.
Falling reservoir levels are expected to curb hydropower output, increasing reliance on imported fuel for thermal generation.
Warmer coastal waters off the Red Sea may shift fish stocks and stress artisanal catches, while heat raises spoilage risk for small-scale fishers.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Eritrea responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions again suppressed seasonal rains in the Horn of Africa, compounding food insecurity and water shortages in Eritrea and its neighbours.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with severe drought across the Horn of Africa, driving failed harvests and large-scale humanitarian needs in Eritrea and the wider region.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought markedly deficient Kiremt rains to the Horn of Africa, contributing to crop failure and food insecurity in Eritrea and neighbouring countries.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Niño threatens agricultural production and food security across the continent; FAO advocates for timely anticipatory action
Nigeria faces world's highest projected heat death toll from super El Niño
As El Niño Intensifies – WMO Warns Policymakers to Brace for Escalating Impacts on Health Worldwide
Nearby
Neighbouring countries