Djibouti
Score moved 7 → 6 . “Record El Niño heat meets a 31% rainfall deficit as Djibouti's short rains stall”
A record-strength El Niño is intensifying across the Greater Horn of Africa, and Djibouti is already feeling it through a 31% rainfall deficit and temperatures 1.4°C above normal for July–October 2026. Although that window is climatologically dry, the shortfall signals a late and weak start to the OND short rains that normally drive the January–February harvest. UN and inter-agency reporting meanwhile flags a sharp hunger spike, with food insecurity and water stress expected to worsen through the peak October–December impact period.
57.7 mm vs 83.5 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was 31% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Djibouti's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the deficit mainly reflects a delayed onset of the OND short rains.
News source34.55°C mean vs 33.14°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran 1.4°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño warming reported across the Greater Horn of Africa.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Djibouti wetter. Observed rainfall is running -31% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (11.5°, 43.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Djibouti and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A delayed, below-normal OND short rains season is expected to cut yields of sorghum, maize and vegetables and push the January–February harvest back by about a month.
Below-normal rainfall and high evaporation at +1.4°C are likely to draw down reservoirs, cisterns and shallow groundwater, intensifying urban and pastoral water shortages.
Heat stress, water scarcity and deteriorating food access are likely to worsen malnutrition and raise the risk of cholera and other waterborne diseases.
Reduced hydropower potential and higher cooling demand from anomalous heat are expected to raise reliance on imported electricity and increase grid stress.
Warmer coastal waters and stronger upwelling variability may shift pelagic fish stocks, disrupting artisanal catches and the livelihoods of Djibouti's coastal communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Djibouti responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions were linked to severe flooding in the region and, in Djibouti, to displacement and crop losses that compounded existing food insecurity.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to drought and food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, straining Djibouti's water supplies and pastoral livelihoods.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought extreme rainfall and flash flooding to the Horn of Africa, with Djibouti experiencing damaging floods and subsequent disease outbreaks.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Neighbouring countries