Somalia
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “A record El Niño is forecast to supercharge Somalia's Deyr rains — and with them, the flood risk on the Shabelle and Juba”
A record-strength El Niño is forecast to enhance Somalia's Deyr rains from October to December 2026, raising the risk of riverine flooding along the Shabelle and Juba rivers. The July–October window was Somalia's normal dry season, with temperatures running +1.4°C above the 1991–2020 average, so the measured +3% rainfall anomaly is not a meaningful signal; the real concern is the coming wet season. Humanitarian agencies warn that the same rains that could restore pasture and crops may also displace communities and deepen an already severe hunger crisis, particularly for women and girls.
37.4 mm vs 36.2 mm normal
The July–October window is Somalia's climatological dry season, so the measured +3% anomaly is not meaningful; the key signal is the forecast of enhanced Deyr (October–December) rains, which the articles warn could bring riverine flooding on the Shabelle and Juba.
News source27.41°C mean vs 25.97°C normal
Mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +1.4°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the strong El Niño background described in the articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Somalia wetter. Observed rainfall is running +3% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (10.0°, 49.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Somalia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Enhanced Deyr rains could boost crop and pasture production, but flooding may destroy standing crops and displace farming communities during the October–December growing season.
Riverine flooding on the Shabelle and Juba is expected to contaminate wells and displace populations, while also potentially replenishing depleted water sources.
Flooding is expected to increase waterborne disease outbreaks such as cholera, while the hunger crisis deepens malnutrition, particularly among women and girls.
Flooding could damage power infrastructure and disrupt fuel supply chains, though enhanced river flows may support hydroelectric potential.
Flood-driven sediment and nutrient runoff may disrupt coastal fishing grounds, while inland fishing communities along the rivers face displacement risk.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Somalia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to severe flooding across Somalia, displacing over a million people and worsening food insecurity.
unsourced background2015-16
El Niño-enhanced Deyr rains caused significant riverine flooding in southern Somalia, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and damaging infrastructure.
unsourced background1997-98
A record El Niño brought severe flooding to the Shabelle and Juba river basins, displacing hundreds of thousands and causing widespread crop losses.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Neighbouring countries