Ethiopia
Narrative updated. “WMO confirms strong El Niño as Ethiopia braces for a weaker Kiremt and a longer lean season”
El Niño has been confirmed and is expected to fuel more extreme weather across the Greater Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia among the countries most exposed. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 6% below the 1991–2020 average and temperatures about 2.2°C above normal, though this window is Ethiopia's dry season and the real test lies in the coming Kiremt and Deyr rains. Humanitarian and meteorological agencies warn that northern Ethiopia faces a weaker Kiremt and drought risk while southern and southeastern zones face enhanced rains and flooding, prompting urgent calls for assistance.
636.6 mm vs 680.8 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was about 6% below the 1991–2020 average, but this window is Ethiopia's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the forecast for the coming Kiremt and Deyr rains.
News source16.23°C mean vs 14.06°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran about 2.2°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño conditions described by WMO and UN News.
News sourceWith El Niño confirmed at strength, the Kiremt (June–September) rains that drive the Meher harvest are expected to be weaker and erratic in northern and central Ethiopia, while southern and southeastern areas face enhanced October–December rains and flood risk, likely delaying planting and lengthening the lean season.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (8.0°, 38.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Ethiopia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A weaker Kiremt is expected to cut Meher cereal and pulse yields in the northern highlands, while excess October–December rains may waterlog and damage crops in the south.
Reduced Kiremt rainfall is likely to lower river flows and reservoir levels in the north, while southern catchments face flash flooding and contamination of water sources.
Flooding in the south raises the risk of cholera and malaria outbreaks, while drought in the north is expected to worsen malnutrition and heat stress.
Hydropower output is expected to decline if Kiremt inflows into major dams fall short, increasing the risk of load shedding and higher energy costs.
Flooding in southern lakes and rivers could disrupt fishing grounds and damage gear, while low water levels in northern reservoirs may reduce inland fish catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Ethiopia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to drought in northern Ethiopia and deadly floods in the south and Somali region, compounding existing humanitarian pressures.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to one of Ethiopia's worst droughts in decades, with failed Kiremt rains in the north and high humanitarian needs across the country.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to northern Ethiopia and heavy flooding to the south and east, causing widespread crop failure and food insecurity.
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