South Sudan
Score moved 3 → 5 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “WFP warns a 'Super El Niño' is deepening hunger in South Sudan as the rains underperform”
A 'Super El Niño' is deepening South Sudan's hunger crisis, with WFP warning that the event threatens to push tens of millions across the region into acute food insecurity. Regional preparedness alerts from OCHA and ReliefWeb flag South Sudan among the countries most exposed, while WMO guidance points to below-normal rainfall for the northern Greater Horn. Measured conditions bear this out: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 18% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures were roughly 2.9°C above normal, an unusually warm and dry signal for a window that is climatologically South Sudan's dry season.
321.5 mm vs 394.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 18% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with WMO guidance of below-normal rains for the northern Greater Horn, though this window falls in South Sudan's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm and percentage anomalies carry little weight.
News source28.97°C mean vs 26.09°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 2.9°C above normal, an extreme warm anomaly that compounds evaporation losses and heat stress even where rainfall deficits are modest.
The rainy season, planting and lean season are broadly on schedule, but a weak and inconsistent El Niño signal means the coming rains are expected to underperform, with the October–November harvest and the following season at risk.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (7.0°, 30.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for South Sudan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains and extreme heat are expected to cut yields for the October–November harvest and threaten the next planting window, worsening already high acute food insecurity.
Above-normal temperatures and rainfall deficits are likely to lower surface water and borehole recharge, increasing pressure on already stretched water points and pastoralist watering routes.
Heat stress, water scarcity and crowding at water points are expected to raise risks of cholera, diarrhoea and malnutrition, particularly among children and displaced populations.
Lower river flows and reservoir levels may curb hydropower output while heat drives up cooling demand, straining an already limited grid.
Shrinking rivers and floodplains could reduce fish catch and dry out key fishing grounds, undermining a critical livelihood and protein source for riverine communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how South Sudan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to regional rainfall variability and flooding in parts of South Sudan, displacing communities and damaging crops and infrastructure.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record coincided with drought-like conditions and poor harvests across the Horn of Africa, deepening food insecurity in South Sudan.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought erratic and below-normal rains to parts of South Sudan, contributing to crop failure and severe food insecurity during the war years.
unsourced backgroundNearby
Neighbouring countries