Uganda
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Karamoja's hunger peaks just as El Niño's rains are forecast to arrive”
Uganda enters the peak El Niño window with Karamoja already in acute food insecurity, where WFP reports hunger peaking as the event arrives. WMO and ReliefWeb preparedness alerts point to enhanced October–December short rains across the Greater Horn, which should favour the second-season harvest but also bring flood and landslide risk, particularly in the Elgon highlands. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 11% below normal in what is climatologically the dry season and temperatures 1.9°C above normal, so the decisive test will be how the coming short rains behave.
271 mm vs 304.4 mm normal
Rainfall over the 9 July–6 October 2026 window ran about 11% below the 1991–2020 normal, but this fell within Uganda's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the forecast enhancement of the coming October–December short rains under El Niño.
News source24.09°C mean vs 22.2°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window were measured at +1.9°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño warming reported by WMO across the Greater Horn of Africa.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Uganda wetter. Observed rainfall is running -11% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (1.0°, 32.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Uganda and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Enhanced OND short rains are expected to lift second-season yields and pasture, but waterlogging, landslides and post-harvest losses could offset gains in highland and flood-prone districts.
Heavier-than-normal short rains should recharge surface and groundwater sources, though flash flooding may contaminate shallow wells and boreholes in low-lying areas.
Flooding and standing water are likely to raise cholera, typhoid and malaria transmission, while heat stress and disrupted harvests worsen nutrition, especially in Karamoja.
Higher reservoir inflows should support hydropower generation on the Nile, but flood damage to transmission lines and access roads could cause localised outages.
Rising lake and river levels plus heavier inflows may disrupt landing sites and fish breeding, while flood-driven sedimentation could reduce catch in Lake Kyoga and Albert basins.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Uganda responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to heavy OND rains and flooding in eastern Uganda, compounding existing food insecurity in Karamoja and other drought-affected areas.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions were associated with enhanced East African short rains, flooding and elevated cholera and malaria incidence across Uganda and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought exceptionally heavy short rains to Uganda, causing widespread flooding, landslides in the Elgon region and significant displacement and crop losses.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Niño Arrives as Karamoja Hunger Peaks: Uganda Braces for Enhanced Short Rains and Flood Risk
Uganda enters the peak El Niño window with Karamoja already in acute food insecurity, where WFP reports hunger peaking as the event arrives. WMO and ReliefWeb preparedness alerts point to enhanced Oct
El Niño threatens deadly floods and disease across East Africa and Asia
Nearby
Neighbouring countries