Nigeria
Score moved 3 → 5 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Nigeria tops global heat-death projections as a super El Niño tightens its grip on the Sahel”
A super El Niño is projected to make Nigeria the country with the world's highest heat-related death toll, with modelling cited by Phys.org and RFI pointing to more than 450,000 deaths across affected regions by February. The African Development Bank warns the event could cost Africa up to $20 billion, compounding pressure on Nigeria's agriculture, water and health systems. Measured conditions already show temperatures about 1.4°C above normal for July–October 2026, even as rainfall ran roughly 39% above average in a window that is climatologically Nigeria's dry season.
1107.8 mm vs 794.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 39% above the 1991–2020 average, though this window falls in Nigeria's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the outlook for the coming rainy season matters more than the percentage itself.
24.29°C mean vs 22.93°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same July–October window were about 1.4°C above normal, consistent with the extreme heat stress the articles project for Nigeria under a strong El Niño.
News sourceThe rainy season, planting and lean season are proceeding broadly on schedule, but the projected heat and erratic rainfall could still stress crops during the June–September growing window and the October–November harvest.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (10.0°, 8.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Nigeria and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Projected heat stress and erratic rainfall could cut yields during the June–September growing season and disrupt the October–November harvest, deepening food insecurity in the Sahelian north.
Above-average dry-season rainfall may ease immediate shortages, but higher evaporation from +1.4°C heat is expected to strain reservoirs and boreholes through the coming dry months.
Nigeria faces the world's highest projected heat death toll, with heat stress, dehydration and nutrition-related illness expected to hit children and the elderly hardest.
Surging cooling demand under extreme heat is likely to push up electricity consumption and strain grid capacity, raising the risk of outages.
Warmer inland waters and shifting river flows could reduce fish stocks and disrupt artisanal fishing livelihoods along the Niger and Benue systems.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Nigeria responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño year brought heat and erratic rainfall to Nigeria, contributing to crop losses and higher food prices amid broader regional climate shocks.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niños on record coincided with drought and heat stress in Nigeria's north, reducing harvests and intensifying pastoralist-farmer tensions.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño contributed to drier conditions across northern Nigeria, stressing cereal crops and worsening food insecurity in the Sahel.
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