Benin
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Benin's rains arrived on time and slightly above normal — but a hotter El Niño season is testing farmers and health systems”
Benin's 2026 rainy season began on schedule with average to above-average rainfall across bimodal zones, and measured July–October rainfall ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal. Temperatures over the same period were roughly 1.2°C above normal, consistent with warnings that El Niño is intensifying extreme heat and shifting seasonal patterns. While the main harvest is expected to proceed normally, FAO and health analysts flag elevated risks to agriculture and heat-related mortality as the event peaks toward early 2027.
685.8 mm vs 578.5 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with FEWS NET's assessment of average to above-average seasonal rainfall in Benin's bimodal zones.
News source26.04°C mean vs 24.82°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 1.2°C above normal, aligning with warnings that El Niño is intensifying extreme heat across West Africa.
News sourceThe rainy season started on schedule with adequate planting rains, and the main harvest from October–November is expected to proceed normally, though heat stress and localized excess moisture may trim yields.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (9.5°, 2.3°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Benin and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Average to above-average rains support planting and the October–November harvest, but heat stress and localized flooding could reduce cereal and cotton yields.
Above-normal rainfall should recharge reservoirs and rivers, though intense downpours may cause short-lived flooding in low-lying areas.
Rising heat and humidity increase the risk of heat stress, malaria and waterborne disease, with global modelling projecting hundreds of thousands of additional heat-related deaths by early 2027.
Higher temperatures are expected to boost electricity demand for cooling, straining the grid, while adequate rainfall supports hydropower generation at the Akossombo dam.
Warmer coastal waters and altered currents may shift fish stocks, while inland flooding could disrupt lagoon and riverine fishing livelihoods.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Benin responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to hotter-than-normal temperatures and irregular rainfall across West Africa, with Benin experiencing heat stress on crops and livestock.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with delayed and below-average rainfall in parts of Benin, reducing harvests and prompting regional food security alerts.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought erratic rains and heat stress to West Africa, contributing to localized crop losses and food insecurity in Benin and neighbouring countries.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Niño could cause an additional 451,000 heat-related deaths by February 2027
‘El Nino could cause 4,51,000 extra heat deaths’
Hotter summers and colder winters: El Nino set to intensify extreme weather, scientist says - Perspective
El Niño is coming. Here is where the risks to agriculture are highest
Benin's Rains Hold Steady, But a Hotter El Niño Raises Heat and Harvest Risks
Benin's 2026 rainy season began on schedule with average to above-average rainfall across bimodal zones, and measured July–October rainfall ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal. Temperatures over
Nearby
Neighbouring countries