Burkina Faso
Score moved 9 → 8 . “El Niño has already cut Burkina Faso's rains by a third — and the lean season is only starting”
El Niño conditions have left Burkina Faso's 2026 rainy season roughly 36% drier than normal, with temperatures about 2.6°C above average, and FEWS NET warns that agropastoral production prospects are already negatively affected through January 2027. The shortened, erratic rains are expected to delay planting by about a month, depress cereal and pasture yields, and drive households into an early lean season. Global food security assessments and IFAD's El Niño preparedness work point to the same conclusion: without anticipatory action, the coming harvest will fall short of national needs.
349.2 mm vs 549.9 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 36% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño signal for Burkina Faso and with FEWS NET's warning of degraded agropastoral production prospects.
News source29.53°C mean vs 26.92°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 2.6°C above normal, intensifying evapotranspiration stress on crops and pasture during the peak El Niño impact period.
El Niño typically makes Burkina Faso drier. Observed rainfall is running -37% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (13.0°, -2.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Burkina Faso and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Cereal and cash-crop yields are expected to fall well below average as a shortened rainy season and heat stress hit millet, sorghum, maize and cotton.
Below-normal rainfall is likely to lower reservoir and borehole levels, straining drinking-water supply and irrigation in the dry months ahead.
Heat stress, water scarcity and reduced food production are expected to worsen malnutrition and raise the risk of waterborne disease.
Hydropower output is likely to decline with lower reservoir inflows, increasing reliance on costly thermal generation and raising outage risk.
Receding water levels in rivers and reservoirs are expected to reduce fish stocks and catch sizes for inland fishing communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Burkina Faso responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to erratic rainfall and localized dry spells in Burkina Faso, compounding displacement and market disruption to weaken household food access.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions were associated with below-average Sahelian rainfall, poor pasture regeneration and an early start to the lean season across Burkina Faso and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought a markedly shortened and erratic rainy season to the Sahel, cutting cereal harvests and triggering widespread food insecurity in Burkina Faso.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSPrepare before the El Niño floods, not during, Compassion International tells African churches
2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts
Preparing for El Niño: Lessons from IFAD investments
El Niño Dries Up Burkina Faso's Rains: Harvest Prospects Worsen as Lean Season Looms
El Niño conditions have left Burkina Faso's 2026 rainy season roughly 36% drier than normal, with temperatures about 2.6°C above average, and FEWS NET warns that agropastoral production prospects are
Fuel shortages and El Niño related droughts likely to reduce crop output in East Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean
Nearby
Neighbouring countries