Togo
Narrative updated. “El Niño's weak grip on Togo still carries a price at the farm gate and the fuel pump”
El Niño conditions are in place globally, and the articles warn of pressure on agricultural production from the combined effect of the climate pattern and high input prices, alongside a record global wildfire season that scientists say El Niño could worsen. For Togo, measured conditions over 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 7% above normal and temperatures about 1.2°C above normal, with the rainy season, planting and lean season broadly on schedule. The main exposure ahead is the October–November harvest and the cost of imported inputs and energy, rather than a dramatic rainfall deficit.
763.7 mm vs 715.7 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 7% above the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Togo's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than a dry-season percentage.
25.9°C mean vs 24.66°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 1.2°C above normal, consistent with the warming background that articles link to El Niño-driven heat and wildfire risk.
The rainy season (June–September), planting (June–July) and lean season (June–August) proceeded broadly on schedule, with the October–November harvest now the key period to watch as El Niño conditions persist.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (8.0°, 1.2°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Togo and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Crop production is expected to face pressure from El Niño-related variability combined with elevated fertiliser and input prices, with the October–November harvest the critical test.
With rainfall near to slightly above normal, water availability for domestic and irrigation use is likely to remain broadly adequate, though dry-season recharge should be monitored.
Above-normal heat raises the risk of heat stress, and rainfall variability can favour water- and vector-borne disease outbreaks and worsen nutrition during the lean season.
Higher temperatures are expected to lift cooling demand and electricity use, while global El Niño-related economic disruption could affect fuel and power import costs.
Warmer coastal and ocean temperatures associated with El Niño may shift fish stocks and reduce catches for Togo's coastal and lagoon fishing communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Togo responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Recent El Niño contributed to global heat records and wildfire extremes, with knock-on effects on food and energy prices relevant to Togo's import-dependent economy.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño linked to delayed and uneven rains in West Africa, reduced harvests and heightened food insecurity in the Sahel and coastal states including Togo.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with erratic West African rainfall, crop losses and higher food prices across the region.
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