Mali
Narrative updated. “Rains 61% below normal as El Niño tightens its grip on the Sahel”
Mali's 2026 rainy season has delivered rainfall 61% below the 1991–2020 average, matching the canonical El Niño signal of drier conditions across the Sahel. Inter-agency ENSO reporting and humanitarian outlooks warn that vulnerable Sahelian countries face substantial drought risk through the peak July–September window, with knock-on effects for food security. WFP and partner analyses point to rising hunger and heat stress, while a September dust storm over Mali underscored how dry, dusty conditions are compounding the agricultural outlook.
59.8 mm vs 152.7 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in 61% below the 1991–2020 average, consistent with the canonical El Niño signal of drier conditions over Mali.
News sourceThe reanalysis value for this window is more than four standard deviations from the 1991–2020 record, so we withhold it rather than publish a likely data artifact.
Articles describe intensifying El Niño-driven heat across the Sahel, with Mali exposed to above-average temperatures during the peak July–September impact window.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Mali drier. Observed rainfall is running -61% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (17.0°, -4.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Mali and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Millet, sorghum and cotton are expected to suffer sharply reduced yields as the shortened rainy season stresses crops during flowering and grain-fill.
River levels and surface reservoirs are likely to fall well below seasonal norms, straining irrigation and pastoral water points across the Sahel.
Drought-driven food insecurity and water scarcity are expected to worsen malnutrition, while heat stress and dust raise respiratory and waterborne disease risks.
Reduced river discharge is likely to cut hydropower output, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising electricity costs.
Lower flows in the Niger River and its floodplain are expected to shrink fish habitat and reduce inland catches for riverine communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Mali responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to uneven rainfall and localized dry spells in West Africa, adding pressure to already fragile food systems in Mali.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with erratic and below-average rainfall in the Sahel, stressing cereal production and pastoral livelihoods in Mali.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought markedly deficient Sahelian rains, contributing to poor harvests and heightened food insecurity across Mali and neighbouring countries.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Neighbouring countries