Senegal
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Strong El Niño heat is already running 2°C above normal across Senegal as the rains falter”
Senegal is feeling a strong El Niño that has pushed mean temperatures roughly 2.0°C above normal and left July–October rainfall about 14% below the 1991–2020 average. The inter-agency ENSO analysis cell and FAO both flag West Africa as a region where the canonical drier signal raises the risk of below-average crop output, while UNDP warns that anticipatory financing is urgently needed before the crisis deepens. With planting and the rainy season broadly on schedule, the main threat is heat and moisture stress cutting into the October–November harvest and tightening the lean season.
450.4 mm vs 523.4 mm normal
Measured rainfall for the July–October 2026 window ran about 14% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño tendency toward weaker rains over Senegal, though the window largely coincides with the climatological dry season so the deficit is modest in absolute terms.
News source29.64°C mean vs 27.67°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 2.0°C above normal, an unusually strong warm anomaly that the ENSO analysis cell attributes to the ongoing strong El Niño.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Senegal drier. Observed rainfall is running -14% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (14.0°, -14.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Senegal and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Millet, sorghum, groundnut and maize yields are expected to come in below average as the drier signal and 2°C heat anomaly stress crops during grain filling.
Reduced rainy-season recharge is likely to lower surface reservoir and shallow aquifer levels, tightening dry-season water access in the centre and north.
Extreme heat raises heat-stress and dehydration risk, while drier conditions and water scarcity are likely to worsen nutrition and waterborne disease outcomes.
Higher cooling demand and lower hydropower inflows from the Senegal River basin are expected to increase reliance on thermal generation and raise supply costs.
Warmer coastal waters may shift pelagic stocks and disrupt artisanal fishing grounds, while heat raises post-catch spoilage risk for coastal communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Senegal responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions were associated with a weak and poorly distributed rainy season in parts of West Africa, with knock-on effects on cereal production and food prices in Senegal.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with erratic and below-average Sahel rainfall, contributing to poor harvests and earlier-than-usual pastoral lean seasons across Senegal and the wider Sahel.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought a markedly weak Sahelian rainy season to Senegal, cutting cereal and groundnut output and deepening rural food insecurity.
unsourced backgroundNearby
Neighbouring countries