Mauritania
Narrative updated. “El Niño's grip tightens on the Sahel as WFP warns tens of millions face acute hunger”
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is driving global humanitarian concern, and the World Food Programme is scaling up preparedness and response plans as tens of millions face acute hunger. For Mauritania, the canonical signal is drier-than-normal conditions, and the inter-agency ENSO analysis cell flags the Sahel among the regions of highest agricultural risk. Measured conditions so far show a modest -4% rainfall anomaly and +1.6°C temperature anomaly, keeping the growing season on schedule but leaving little margin if the projected drying materialises.
54.9 mm vs 56.9 mm normal
The 2026 rainy season to date shows a modest -4% rainfall anomaly versus the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño tendency toward weaker rains over Mauritania.
News source34.38°C mean vs 32.74°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same period ran +1.6°C above normal, amplifying heat stress and evapotranspiration during the peak El Niño impact window.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Mauritania drier. Observed rainfall is running -4% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (20.0°, -12.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Mauritania and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Projected drier-than-normal rains and +1.6°C heat could cut yields for rain-fed millet and sorghum, with the October–November harvest most exposed.
Reduced seasonal recharge is likely to lower surface water and pasture availability, stressing pastoral wells and reservoir levels.
Heat stress, water scarcity and potential flooding are expected to raise risks of malnutrition, cholera and vector-borne disease, especially among pastoralist and displaced populations.
Higher temperatures are expected to lift cooling demand while low reservoir and river levels could constrain hydropower output.
Warmer ocean conditions linked to El Niño may shift pelagic stocks along Mauritania's coast, disrupting artisanal and industrial catch patterns.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Mauritania responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño amplified record sea level surges in African marine domains, with coastal and fisheries implications for West Africa.
Source2015-16
Strong El Niño coincided with poor Sahel rains, driving cereal deficits and humanitarian appeals across Mauritania and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought erratic Sahelian rainfall and contributed to regional food insecurity and pasture shortages.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSNearby
Neighbouring countries