Gambia
Narrative updated. “El Niño meets costly fertiliser as Gambia's harvest window approaches”
El Niño conditions are combining with high agricultural input prices to threaten production across West Africa, including The Gambia, according to the European Commission. UNDP has called for urgent anticipatory investment, warning that El Niño is worsening an already conflict-driven crisis in West and Central Africa. Global scientists separately caution that 2026 could be an extreme year, with the warming signal pushing temperatures well above normal even as rainfall for The Gambia's dry-season window stays close to climatology.
642.7 mm vs 649.9 mm normal
The July–October 2026 window falls in The Gambia's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall percentage anomaly applies; the articles instead flag that El Niño combined with high input prices threatens the coming rainy-season harvest.
News source28.73°C mean vs 27.24°C normal
Mean temperatures for July–October 2026 ran about 1.5°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the broader warming and El Niño heat signal highlighted in the articles.
News sourceThe rainy season (June–September), planting (June–July) and lean season (June–August) are proceeding on schedule, but the harvest (October–November) is expected to be squeezed by El Niño-linked rainfall variability and costly inputs.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (13.5°, -16.6°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Gambia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
El Niño-driven rainfall variability combined with high fertiliser and seed prices is expected to cut yields and squeeze the October–November harvest.
Near-average dry-season rainfall offers little recharge, so surface and groundwater stores may be strained ahead of the next rainy season.
Higher temperatures and lean-season food insecurity are expected to worsen heat stress, malnutrition and waterborne disease risk.
Above-normal heat raises cooling demand and hydropower uncertainty, increasing pressure on an already constrained electricity supply.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting currents linked to El Niño could displace fish stocks and disrupt artisanal catches along the Atlantic coast.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Gambia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to heat and rainfall anomalies across West Africa, compounding food price inflation and input-cost pressures on smallholder farmers.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions coincided with delayed and uneven rains in West Africa, reducing cereal output and prompting regional humanitarian appeals.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought erratic rainfall and poor harvests across the Sahel, including The Gambia, deepening lean-season food insecurity.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Scientists warn 2026 could be extreme year as global warming slips down agenda
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El Niño and costly inputs put Gambia's harvest at risk as region braces for a hotter 2026
El Niño conditions are combining with high agricultural input prices to threaten production across West Africa, including The Gambia, according to the European Commission. UNDP has called for urgent a
Nearby
Neighbouring countries