Niger
Score moved 10 → 9 . “Record El Niño heat and a 31% rain shortfall are squeezing Niger's harvest and herders alike”
Niger's 2026 rainy season has come in roughly 31% below the 1991–2020 normal, with mean temperatures about 2.8°C above average — a combination that matches the canonical El Niño signal of drier, hotter conditions. Reporting on the super El Niño warns of record heat and urges early action, while analysis of the agricultural calendar points to a delayed, compressed growing season and a lean period that will bite harder than usual. The coming months will test water points, pasture and cereal stocks across the Sahel, with knock-on risks for nutrition, livestock and displacement.
115.8 mm vs 168.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 31% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño signal of drier conditions over Niger.
News source33.16°C mean vs 30.37°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran about 2.8°C above normal, matching the record-heat narrative in the September 2026 coverage of super El Niño.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Niger drier. Observed rainfall is running -31% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (16.0°, 8.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Niger and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Millet, sorghum and cowpea yields are expected to fall after a delayed, rain-shortened growing season, with the October–November harvest likely below average.
Below-normal rains are likely to lower surface water and recharge, stressing pastoral water points and irrigation supplies through the dry season.
Record heat plus a lean season are expected to worsen heat stress, malnutrition and waterborne disease risks, particularly for children.
Extreme heat is projected to raise cooling demand and strain hydropower output from the Niger River basin as flows decline.
Shrinking rivers and ponds along the Niger River are expected to reduce fish habitat and catch sizes for riverine communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Niger responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to heat and rainfall variability in the Sahel, adding pressure on already fragile food and water systems in Niger.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño coincided with erratic and below-average rains in Niger, leaving pastoral and cereal-producing areas short of pasture and grain.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought suppressed Sahelian rainfall and poor harvests across Niger, contributing to a regional food crisis.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSS‘El Niño’ already at record levels and threatens to claim 450,000 lives due to extreme heat alone
El Niño Through a Displacement Lens: Risk Exposure, Mobility and Operational Implications
Record El Niño Heat and a 31% Rain Deficit Tighten Niger's Harvest Outlook
Niger's 2026 rainy season has come in roughly 31% below the 1991–2020 normal, with mean temperatures about 2.8°C above average — a combination that matches the canonical El Niño signal of drier, hotte
Nearby
Neighbouring countries