Mali
Mali's 2026 rainy season has delivered rainfall 61% below the 1991–2020 average, matching the canonical El Niño signal of drier conditions across the Sahel. Inter-agency ENSO reporting and humanitarian outlooks warn that vulnerable Sahelian countries face substantial drought risk through the peak July–September window, with knock-on effects for food security. WFP and partner analyses point to rising hunger and heat stress, while a September dust storm over Mali underscored how dry, dusty conditions are compounding the agricultural outlook.
Iran
A strong El Niño is forecast to collide with the economic and logistical shocks of the Iran war, with analysts warning the combination could supercharge global food and energy insecurity. For Iran itself, the canonical El Niño signal points to a wetter winter, but the articles focus on how war disruption to trade, inputs and shipping may blunt any agricultural benefit. Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +2.2°C above normal, and the coming November–March rains will be the decisive test for the winter wheat season.
Sector by sector
Millet, sorghum and cotton are expected to suffer sharply reduced yields as the shortened rainy season stresses crops during flowering and grain-fill.
AgricultureWar-driven input and export disruptions risk outweighing any El Niño rainfall benefit for winter wheat, with regional food shortages flagged across Asia.
River levels and surface reservoirs are likely to fall well below seasonal norms, straining irrigation and pastoral water points across the Sahel.
Water & floodingA wetter-than-normal El Niño winter could ease drought stress in southern Iran, but conflict damage to infrastructure may limit how much of that rain can be stored and used.
Drought-driven food insecurity and water scarcity are expected to worsen malnutrition, while heat stress and dust raise respiratory and waterborne disease risks.
HealthFood insecurity linked to the El Niño–war combination raises malnutrition risk, while above-normal heat adds to heat-stress and disease burdens.
Reduced river discharge is likely to cut hydropower output, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising electricity costs.
EnergyEl Niño-driven shifts in hydropower availability and cooling demand interact with war-related energy market volatility, raising supply risk.
Lower flows in the Niger River and its floodplain are expected to shrink fish habitat and reduce inland catches for riverine communities.
FisheriesWar-related disruption to Gulf shipping and port operations poses a greater near-term risk to fisheries than El Niño ocean warming itself.