Bermuda
Narrative updated. “A strong El Niño is steering storms away from Bermuda — but what does that mean for the island's rains”
Bermuda sits on the weak edge of a powerful El Niño, with the Royal Gazette reporting that the pattern is forecast to limit Atlantic hurricane development and the island's near-miss with a fading tropical disturbance in September bearing that out. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 12% above normal and temperatures 1.2°C above normal, a mild signal that fits the suppressed-storm narrative rather than contradicting it. Because that window is Bermuda's climatological dry season, the real question is whether the coming winter rains arrive on time to recharge the island's rainwater catchments and aquifers.
382.3 mm vs 339.9 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 12% above the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Bermuda's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming winter rains rather than a percentage.
28.05°C mean vs 26.86°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window came in 1.2°C above normal, consistent with the warm SSTs and suppressed hurricane activity described in the El Niño coverage.
With the wet season (May–November) and harvest (November–January) both on schedule, the mild warmth and near-normal moisture should keep Bermuda's growing calendar largely undisturbed.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (32.3°, -64.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bermuda and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wet-season and harvest timing remain on schedule, with mild warmth and near-normal moisture likely to support Bermuda's vegetable and Easter lily growers without major disruption.
Above-normal rainfall in the July–October window offers modest relief, but the island's reliance on roof catchment and aquifers means the coming winter rains will determine water security.
Warmer-than-normal conditions raise the risk of heat stress for outdoor workers and may extend mosquito breeding, while a calmer storm season reduces injury and displacement risks.
A quiet hurricane season lowers the risk of storm-related outages and cable damage, while above-normal temperatures could nudge summer cooling demand slightly higher.
Fewer passing hurricanes reduce damage to boats, traps and reef habitat, though warmer-than-normal water may push some commercial species into deeper or cooler grounds.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bermuda responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to a quieter-than-expected Atlantic season for Bermuda, with the island avoiding major storm impacts while warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures persisted nearby.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record coincided with a below-average Atlantic season; Bermuda saw fewer close approaches but continued to experience warm, humid conditions and variable rainfall.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity and Bermuda escaped direct hits, though the island still faced periodic heavy rain and rough swells from passing systems.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSTropical disturbance near Bermuda fades as historic September milestone nears
El Niño Keeps Bermuda's Storms at Bay as Island Watches the Winter Rains
Bermuda sits on the weak edge of a powerful El Niño, with the Royal Gazette reporting that the pattern is forecast to limit Atlantic hurricane development and the island's near-miss with a fading trop
How El Niño Transforms the Typical Pattern of Atlantic Hurricane Activity
How the Super El Niño will impact the Atlantic hurricane season
El Niño forecast to limit Atlantic hurricane development
Nearby
Other countries in North America