Croatia
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Adriatic sea temperatures and wildfire risk are the front line as a strong El Niño reshapes Croatia's weather”
Croatia's 2026 summer and early autumn ran hot and dry, with rainfall 52% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October and mean temperatures 3.4°C above normal, a pattern consistent with the strong El Niño conditions described in the articles. Reporting from SeaHelp and The Telegraph warns that El Niño could disrupt Adriatic weather and holiday seasons, while Reuters documented raging wildfires across the country in mid-August. Because the measured window falls in Croatia's climatological dry season, the decisive question is whether the autumn rains arrive on schedule to recharge soils and reservoirs.
141.2 mm vs 294.7 mm normal
Rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in 52% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Croatia's climatological dry season, so the key question is whether the autumn rains arrive on time.
News source21.89°C mean vs 18.48°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 3.4°C above normal, consistent with the hot, dry pattern the articles associate with a strong El Niño.
News sourceThe May–September growing season and August–October harvest proceeded on schedule, but the hot, dry summer likely stressed late-season crops and the wildfire season described in the articles.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (45.2°, 15.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Croatia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Late-season crops and the August–October harvest faced heat and moisture stress, with the main risk now resting on whether autumn rains arrive in time for sowing.
A 52% rainfall deficit and +3.4°C heat likely lowered reservoir and groundwater levels, raising the prospect of localised water restrictions if autumn recharge is weak.
Prolonged heat raises heat-stress and dehydration risks, particularly for the elderly, while drought conditions can worsen air quality and wildfire smoke exposure.
Hotter summers typically lift electricity demand for cooling and cut hydropower output, increasing reliance on imported power.
Warmer Adriatic waters associated with El Niño can shift fish stocks and stress shellfish farming, though the articles give no confirmed catch figures.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Croatia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño coincided with repeated summer heatwaves and drought concerns across Croatia and the wider Adriatic.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño contributed to a hot, dry Mediterranean summer with elevated wildfire activity and water stress across the Adriatic region.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record was linked to anomalous Mediterranean warmth and irregular autumn rainfall in southeastern Europe.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSOpinion - Weather windows and El Nino
How a ‘super El Niño’ could affect your holidays
Strong El Niño Leaves Croatia Hot, Dry and Fire-Prone as Autumn Rains Are Awaited
Croatia's 2026 summer and early autumn ran hot and dry, with rainfall 52% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October and mean temperatures 3.4°C above normal, a pattern consistent with the strong
Croatia's raging wildfires seen from above
Utah children returning home after mother arrested in Croatia
Nearby
Neighbouring countries