Central Europe Pop. 2.1M Capital: Ljubljana 5 articles · good coverage

Slovenia

Moderate impact · 4/10 Weak signal in El Niño years
What changed since 9 Oct 2026

Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Potato growers count the cost as a warm, dry summer bites into yields”

Slovenia's potato growers are reporting markedly lower yields after a summer of drought, with Al Jazeera describing how 'the drought has left its mark' on the crop. Reanalysis data for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 35% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures around 3.0°C above normal, a combination that would intensify soil-moisture loss during the May–September growing season. Seasonal outlooks for the coming winter point to a snow and precipitation pattern still being resolved, so the recovery of soil moisture and the 2027 planting window remain uncertain.

Sources: [1][2] · AI-summarised from 5 articles
RAINFALL · LAST 90 DAYS
-35%

201.1 mm vs 308.3 mm normal

Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 35% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the drought impacts reported in Slovenia's potato fields.

News source
TEMPERATURE · LAST 90 DAYS
+3.0°C

20.93°C mean vs 17.89°C normal

Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 3.0°C above normal, an anomalously warm signal that likely intensified evaporative stress on crops.

SIGNAL CHECK
On schedule

The May–September growing season stayed on schedule, but the warm, dry late-summer conditions cut yields in drought-sensitive crops such as potatoes, with harvest quality and size expected to be uneven.

NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (46.1°, 14.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed

When it matters

Agricultural calendar for Slovenia and where the El Niño impact window falls

JFMAMJJASOND
Growing season
Spring planting
Harvest
Rainy seasonPlantingHarvest

Last 12 months vs normal

Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology

020406080100120Nov2025: 116.4 mm (normal 106.7 mm)NovDec2025: 39.6 mm (normal 81.4 mm)DecJan2026: 81.2 mm (normal 52.7 mm)JanFeb2026: 101 mm (normal 61.8 mm)FebMar2026: 70.1 mm (normal 63.6 mm)MarApr2026: 44.8 mm (normal 78.6 mm)AprMay2026: 111.1 mm (normal 97.8 mm)MayJun2026: 96.9 mm (normal 97.8 mm)JunJul2026: 55.7 mm (normal 92.3 mm)JulAug2026: 55.8 mm (normal 95.6 mm)AugSep2026: 99.3 mm (normal 118.5 mm)Sep
Observed monthly rain (mm) 1991–2020 normal

Sector by sector

Agriculture

Potato and other shallow-rooted crops suffered yield losses as the warm, dry late summer depleted soil moisture during the May–September growing season.

Water & flooding

Below-normal rainfall through early October likely reduced river flows and reservoir recharge, raising pressure on irrigation and municipal supplies ahead of winter.

Health

Prolonged heat and dryness likely increased heat-stress risk for outdoor workers and could affect water quality and food availability, though no health outcomes are cited in the articles.

Energy

Reduced river discharge can trim hydropower output, while warmer-than-normal conditions may have lifted summer cooling demand.

Fisheries

Warmer water temperatures and lower summer flows in Slovenian rivers may have stressed cold-water species such as trout, though no fishery impacts are reported in the supplied articles.

What happened last time

Past El Niño episodes and how Slovenia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →

2023-24

El Niño-influenced warmth and uneven rainfall produced drought stress in parts of Slovenia, affecting summer crops and water reserves.

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2015-16

A strong El Niño contributed to warm, dry summer conditions across Central Europe, with crop yield shortfalls reported in Slovenia and neighbouring countries.

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1997-98

One of the strongest El Niño events on record was associated with anomalous warmth and dry spells in the region, though direct Slovenian impacts are less well documented.

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