Guatemala
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Guatemala's Dry Corridor is bracing for a third straight hit as El Niño strengthens over the Pacific”
Guatemala is facing a high-severity El Niño impact, with measured rainfall 32% below normal for July–October 2026 and temperatures 1.1°C above average. The IFRC and OCHA warn that the Dry Corridor's Primera harvest is likely to fail in pockets, pushing subsistence farmers toward food insecurity and migration. Relief agencies are calling for early action, but the postrera planting window is expected to be delayed by about a month as rains arrive late and irregularly.
419 mm vs 620.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran 32% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical El Niño drying signal for Guatemala and the Dry Corridor.
News source23.46°C mean vs 22.32°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were 1.1°C above normal, amplifying evapotranspiration stress on crops and water sources.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Guatemala drier. Observed rainfall is running -33% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.5°, -90.3°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Guatemala and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Primera maize and bean harvests are likely to fail across the Dry Corridor, with postrera planting delayed by roughly a month and yields projected well below average.
Reservoirs, rivers and rural aquifers are expected to drop further, intensifying water rationing in Guatemala City and trucked-water dependence in the altiplano.
Heat stress, dehydration and worsening child malnutrition are likely, alongside elevated dengue and waterborne disease risk as water quality deteriorates.
Lower reservoir levels are expected to cut hydropower output, increasing reliance on thermal generation and raising electricity costs.
Warmer coastal waters may push pelagic species offshore, reducing catch volumes for Pacific artisanal fleets and raising post-harvest losses.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Guatemala responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions exacerbated drought and heat stress in Guatemala, reducing staple crop yields and increasing food insecurity in vulnerable communities.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to prolonged drought and a humanitarian food crisis in the Dry Corridor, with hundreds of thousands of families requiring assistance.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to the Dry Corridor, causing widespread crop losses and food shortages in eastern Guatemala.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSThis Year’s El Niño Is Huge and Already Changing the World
El Niño 2026-2027: Climate Risk & Humanitarian Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean - As of September 2026
El Niño Tightens Grip on Guatemala as Dry Corridor Faces Failed Harvests
Guatemala is facing a high-severity El Niño impact, with measured rainfall 32% below normal for July–October 2026 and temperatures 1.1°C above average. The IFRC and OCHA warn that the Dry Corridor's P
UN relief chief calls for early action as El Niño threatens vulnerable communities
Nearby
Neighbouring countries