Honduras
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “80% of Honduras under drought alert as a strengthening El Niño threatens the Postrera harvest”
Honduras has placed 80% of its territory on El Niño drought alert, with the government warning that erratic rains could hit the Postrera sowing season now under way. Analysts link the resulting crop losses to a likely rise in US-bound migration from rural areas, while global El Niño assessments list Honduras among the countries to watch. Measured conditions for July–October 2026 were actually cooler than normal (-0.2°C) and fell in the climatological dry season, so the real test is whether the coming rains arrive on time.
624.5 mm vs 344.4 mm normal
The 9 July–6 October 2026 window falls in Honduras's climatological dry season, when normal rainfall is under 20 mm, so no meaningful percentage anomaly applies; the concern is the outlook for the coming Postrera rains, which articles warn could be erratic under a strong El Niño.
News source23.22°C mean vs 23.42°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 0.2°C below the 1991–2020 normal, a cooler-than-average reading that sits awkwardly beside the heat and drought narrative in the coverage.
El Niño typically makes Honduras drier. Observed rainfall is running +81% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.0°, -86.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Honduras and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Subsistence maize and bean growers in the Dry Corridor face delayed and erratic Postrera rains, with yield losses expected to deepen food insecurity.
Reservoir and aquifer recharge is likely to lag if the coming rains underperform, tightening supply for both cities and irrigation districts.
Drought-driven crop failure is expected to worsen child malnutrition, while water scarcity raises the risk of diarrhoeal disease.
Hydropower output is vulnerable to below-normal reservoir levels, raising the risk of higher thermal generation and costlier electricity.
Warmer coastal waters could shift fish stocks and disrupt artisanal catches along the Pacific and Caribbean coasts.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Honduras responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again stressed the Dry Corridor, with below-normal rains and reduced harvests prompting government and humanitarian response.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record triggered prolonged drought in Honduras, contributing to emergency food assistance needs and elevated out-migration.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought severe drought to the Dry Corridor, causing widespread crop losses and food shortages across southern Honduras.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSHonduras Puts 80% of Country on El Niño Drought Alert as Postrera Season Hangs in the Balance
Honduras has placed 80% of its territory on El Niño drought alert, with the government warning that erratic rains could hit the Postrera sowing season now under way. Analysts link the resulting crop l
OCHA prepares to act ahead of a possibly strong El Niño
How a 'super El Nino' could change global weather
El Niño drought could drive US-bound migration from Honduras
Nearby
Neighbouring countries