Indonesia
Score moved 8 → 9 . “Fire season has started early and the rains that normally end it are still weeks away”
Indonesia is bracing for what officials and media are calling a possible 'Godzilla El Niño', with the fire season igniting early and drought conditions deepening across the archipelago. Reanalysis for 9 July to 6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 93% below the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures roughly 0.4°C above average, though this is the climatological dry season when monthly totals are normally under 20 mm. The critical question now is the coming wet season: forecasters expect its onset to be delayed by around a month, which would push back main rice planting and intensify pressure on water, energy and health systems.
6.3 mm vs 95.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Indonesia from 9 July to 6 October 2026 running about 93% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the crippling drought and early fire season described in the articles, though this window is climatologically the dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm.
News source25.21°C mean vs 24.8°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window ran about 0.4°C above normal, a modest warming that still amplifies evaporation stress and fire risk during the prolonged dry spell.
El Niño typically makes Indonesia drier. Observed rainfall is running -93% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-5.0°, 120.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Indonesia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Delayed wet-season onset is expected to postpone main rice planting by about a month, cutting yields and raising food-price pressure into the March–April harvest.
Reservoirs, irrigation canals and groundwater are being drawn down through an unusually severe dry season, with rationing likely in Java and Bali if the rains arrive late.
Haze from peat and forest fires is expected to drive respiratory illness, while heat stress and reduced water access raise nutrition and diarrhoeal risks.
Falling hydropower output and rising cooling demand are projected to tighten the grid, with diesel and coal backup generation filling the gap.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting currents are expected to displace fish stocks, while haze and rough conditions disrupt small-scale fishing days.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Indonesia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to a delayed wet season and below-normal rainfall, stressing rice planting schedules and raising fire risk in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño brought a prolonged dry season, widespread peat fires and haze, delayed monsoon onset and reduced rice production across Indonesia.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record produced a severe drought and massive peatland fires across Kalimantan and Sumatra, blanketing the region in haze and cutting rice output.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSIndonesia Braces for 'Godzilla El Niño' as Drought Deepens and Fires Spread Early
Indonesia is bracing for what officials and media are calling a possible 'Godzilla El Niño', with the fire season igniting early and drought conditions deepening across the archipelago. Reanalysis for
Photo Essay: As a Super El Niño Looms, Indonesia’s Crippling Drought Deepens
Governments brace for historic El Nino impacts on global weather extremes
Gripped by El Niño, Indonesia Battles Intensifying Wildfires
Nearby
Neighbouring countries