Malaysia
Score moved 7 → 6 . “A 'super' El Niño is forecast to push Malaysia toward record heat and a delayed monsoon — with haze, water stress and outdoor workers first in line”
Malaysian weather authorities and international media are warning of a 'super' El Niño in late 2026, with the national weather agency putting the odds above 90% and forecasting record temperatures into 2027. Measured conditions already lean that way: rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 16% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures about 1.0°C above normal, though that window is climatologically Malaysia's dry season, so the decisive test is whether the November–March rains arrive on schedule. If the wet season is delayed, main rice planting due in November–December could slip by roughly a month, while drier conditions raise the risk of water rationing, palm-oil yield losses and a return of regional haze.
614.9 mm vs 728.7 mm normal
Measured rainfall for July–October 2026 ran about 16% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the drier-than-usual El Niño signal, though this window is climatologically the dry season and the more consequential question is whether the November–March rains arrive on time.
News source26.61°C mean vs 25.58°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window came in about 1.0°C above normal, and articles warn that a 'super' El Niño could push Malaysia toward record highs in late 2026 and into 2027.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Malaysia drier. Observed rainfall is running -16% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (2.5°, 112.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Malaysia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Palm oil and rice are most exposed, with a delayed wet season likely to push back November–December planting and cut yields in rain-fed areas.
Below-normal rainfall and high evaporation are expected to draw down reservoirs and dam levels, raising the prospect of water rationing in Peninsular Malaysia.
Heat stress among outdoor workers, plus haze-related respiratory illness and possible waterborne disease as supplies tighten, are the main concerns.
Record heat is likely to drive peak electricity demand for cooling while lower reservoir levels constrain hydropower output.
Warmer coastal waters and reduced river flows are expected to shift fish stocks and disrupt inland aquaculture and near-shore catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Malaysia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to heatwaves, below-average rainfall and localized water shortages in Malaysia, alongside renewed transboundary haze concerns.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions coincided with prolonged dry spells, reduced palm oil output and one of the worst haze seasons on record in Malaysia.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño brought severe drought, water rationing in the Klang Valley and a region-wide haze episode that disrupted schools and air travel across Malaysia.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSMalaysia warns of over 90% chance of “super El Niño” in late 2026
How well are Malaysia’s outdoor workers protected during the upcoming ‘Super El Niño’?
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Malaysia Braces for 'Super' El Niño: Record Heat, Delayed Monsoon and the Return of Hazezilla
Malaysian weather authorities and international media are warning of a 'super' El Niño in late 2026, with the national weather agency putting the odds above 90% and forecasting record temperatures int
Malaysia braces for record high temperatures under ‘super’ El Nino
Nearby
Neighbouring countries