Brunei
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “El Niño heat and regional haze close in on Brunei as the dry season bites”
Brunei is tracking the strong El Niño of 2026 through a hotter, drier dry season, with reanalysis showing rainfall about 8% below normal and mean temperatures roughly 1.0°C above normal for 9 July–6 October. Regional bulletins warn of dangerous heat and a surge in ASEAN hotspots, with wildfire haze from Indonesia already spreading into Malaysia and raising air-quality concerns for the whole sub-region. The critical test comes with the November–March wet season, whose onset will determine whether the next rice planting cycle stays on schedule.
614.2 mm vs 667.7 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall about 8% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that falls in Brunei's climatological dry season, so the more meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming wet-season rains.
News source27.46°C mean vs 26.49°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran about 1.0°C above normal, consistent with the regional heat and haze build-up described in the ASEAN and Southeast Asia bulletins.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Brunei drier. Observed rainfall is running -8% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (4.5°, 114.7°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Brunei and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rice planting from November depends on a timely wet-season onset, while heat stress and haze could trim yields of vegetables and fruit in the interim.
Below-normal dry-season rainfall and high evaporation are likely to draw down reservoir and groundwater levels, raising the risk of water restrictions before the rains return.
Heat stress and transboundary haze are the main concerns, with respiratory illness likely to rise during haze episodes and nutrition at risk if the wet season is delayed.
Higher temperatures are expected to push up electricity demand for cooling, while haze reduces solar output and dry conditions raise wildfire risk near power infrastructure.
Warmer coastal waters and haze-dimmed light are expected to shift fish distributions and disrupt small-scale fishing days in Brunei Bay and offshore waters.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Brunei responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to drier-than-normal weather and elevated regional hotspot activity, with haze concerns recurring across ASEAN including Brunei.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced prolonged dry conditions and significant transboundary haze across Southeast Asia, stressing Brunei's water reserves and crop production.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and the worst regional haze episode to Borneo, sharply reducing rainfall across Brunei and disrupting water supplies and agriculture.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Brunei is tracking the strong El Niño of 2026 through a hotter, drier dry season, with reanalysis showing rainfall about 8% below normal and mean temperatures roughly 1.0°C above normal for 9 July–6 O
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Nearby
Neighbouring countries