Philippines
Narrative updated. “A super El Niño is building, and the Philippines is bracing for drought, heat and a late start to the rains”
A strong, possibly record-strength El Niño is forecast to peak over the Philippines between August and November 2026, with articles warning of drought across Mindanao and the Visayas and losses in rice production. Measured conditions already show the country running warm, at +0.9°C above normal for July–October, while the dry-season rainfall total of +38% versus normal is not a meaningful anomaly because that window is climatologically dry. The key risk now lies in the coming wet season, which is expected to start late and underperform, delaying the November–December rice planting window and straining water, power and food systems.
1040 mm vs 752.3 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 at +38% versus the 1991–2020 normal, but this window is the climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming wet-season rains, which articles expect to arrive late and weak.
News source29.03°C mean vs 28.16°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran +0.9°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño warming described in the articles.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Philippines drier. Observed rainfall is running +38% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (13.0°, 122.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Philippines and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Rice and corn losses are likely in Mindanao and the Visayas as drought hits the August–November peak, with the main planting window in November–December expected to be delayed by about a month.
Reservoir and irrigation supplies are expected to draw down through the dry season, raising the risk of water rationing in Metro Manila and provincial service areas before the wet season arrives.
Heat stress, water scarcity and reduced food access are expected to raise risks of dehydration, dengue and child undernutrition in drought-affected provinces.
Lower hydropower output and higher cooling demand are expected to tighten the grid, increasing the risk of rotating brownouts and higher electricity rates.
Warmer coastal waters and reduced upwelling are likely to push pelagic fish further offshore, cutting catch volumes for small-scale fishers and raising prices at municipal markets.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Philippines responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought below-normal rainfall and agricultural losses, with the central bank and government monitoring food price and inflation pressures.
unsourced background2015-16
A strong El Niño produced prolonged dry spells, crop damage and power supply concerns, prompting government drought declarations in several provinces.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought to Mindanao and the Visayas, causing widespread rice and corn losses and water shortages across the archipelago.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSPhilippines’ central bank braces for ‘Godzilla’ El Niño
Is the Philippines ready for Super El Niño and super-typhoons?
Super El Niño Bears Down on the Philippines: Drought Risk, Late Rains and a Delayed Rice Season
A strong, possibly record-strength El Niño is forecast to peak over the Philippines between August and November 2026, with articles warning of drought across Mindanao and the Visayas and losses in ric
What to expect from the strongest El Nino in over a century
Nearby
Other countries in South-Eastern Asia