Iraq
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Iraq's dry season masks the real test: whether El Niño disrupts the November rains”
A strengthening El Niño, with global ocean temperatures at record highs, has prompted warnings of food and nutrition crises across vulnerable regions including the Middle East. For Iraq the July–October window is climatologically dry, so the immediate signal is heat rather than rainfall, with measured temperatures running +1.6°C above normal. The decisive question is whether the November–March winter rains arrive on time to support wheat planting and pasture recovery.
4 mm vs 1.2 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Iraq's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies; attention instead turns to the November–March winter rains, which articles suggest may be erratic under a strong El Niño.
35.86°C mean vs 34.31°C normal
Measured mean temperatures for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +1.6°C above normal, consistent with record global ocean and land heat described in the coverage.
News sourceThe wheat harvest concluded on schedule in May–June, and the critical test now is whether the winter rains arrive on time for November–March planting and establishment.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (33.0°, 44.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Iraq and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wheat harvest finished on schedule in May–June, but a delayed or weak start to the November–March rains would threaten the next planting season and rain-fed barley.
Reservoir and river flows depend on upstream winter precipitation; a dry El Niño winter would compound existing Tigris–Euphrates storage stress.
Prolonged heat elevates heat-stress risk for outdoor workers, and water scarcity can worsen waterborne disease and nutrition outcomes for vulnerable households.
Sustained +1.6°C heat raises summer cooling demand and strains grid capacity, while reduced river flow limits hydropower output.
Warmer water and lower river levels in the dry season can reduce dissolved oxygen and stress inland fish stocks in the Mesopotamian marshes.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Iraq responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions contributed to global heat records and disrupted food supply chains, with Middle East food-security warnings echoing current concerns.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño coincided with regional drought and heat stress, pressuring rain-fed agriculture and water supplies in Iraq and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with severe drought and crop failure across West Asia and the Middle East, including reduced cereal output in Iraq.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Neighbouring countries