Jordan
Narrative updated. “A record-strength El Niño is building — but for Jordan the signal stays weak, with the winter rains the real test”
US forecasters say the 2026 El Niño is on track to rank among the strongest ever recorded, with NOAA putting the odds of emergence at 96% and Arab-region outlets forecasting an active autumn. For Jordan, however, the canonical signal remains weak: the July–October window is the climatological dry season, when rainfall is normally under 20 mm, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies. Measured temperatures for that window ran about +0.8°C above normal, and the winter wheat season stays on schedule pending the arrival of the November–March rains.
4.9 mm vs 1.5 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
Jordan is in its climatological dry season (July–October), when rainfall is normally under 20 mm, so no meaningful percentage anomaly applies; the key question is whether the strong El Niño will deliver a wetter-than-normal start to the November–March winter rains, as the Arab-region forecast suggests.
News source26.25°C mean vs 25.45°C normal
Measured temperatures for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about +0.8°C above normal, a modest warm anomaly consistent with a weak El Niño signal for Jordan rather than the 'super' intensity described in global headlines.
The wheat harvest (May–June) is complete and the winter cropping season remains on schedule, with planting dependent on the arrival of the November rains.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (31.0°, 36.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Jordan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wheat harvest is complete and winter planting remains on schedule, but a delayed or weak start to the November–March rains would pressure rain-fed barley and wheat yields.
Reservoir and aquifer recharge depends almost entirely on the coming winter rains, so a strong El Niño's wetter-than-normal Arab-region forecast would be welcome after the dry season.
Warmer-than-normal conditions increase heat-stress risk, and if the winter rains arrive heavy, standing water could raise vector-borne and waterborne disease risk.
Above-normal temperatures raise summer cooling demand, while any wetter winter could modestly boost hydropower and reduce pumping energy needs.
Jordan's limited inland and Aqaba-based fisheries face little direct El Niño pressure, though warmer coastal waters could shift species distribution in the Gulf of Aqaba.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Jordan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions brought variable winter rainfall to Jordan, with no severe nationwide impacts reported and the wheat season proceeding on schedule.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with a dry winter in parts of the Levant, straining Jordan's already scarce water supplies and rain-fed agriculture.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record; Jordan experienced a weak regional signal with rainfall broadly near normal and no major documented agricultural losses.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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US forecasters say the 2026 El Niño is on track to rank among the strongest ever recorded, with NOAA putting the odds of emergence at 96% and Arab-region outlets forecasting an active autumn. For Jord
Odds of El Niño Emergance Soar to 96% in Latest NOAA Report
Nearby
Neighbouring countries