Israel
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Emergency services are being pre-positioned as forecasters warn of a once-in-a-century storm season”
Israeli media are reporting that emergency services are being pre-positioned for what forecasters describe as the strongest El Niño on record, with warnings of deadly floods, vicious winds and huge hailstones during the coming winter. The measured climate signal is more muted: the July–October window is Israel's normal dry season, and mean temperatures ran +1.1°C above normal rather than at the extremes implied by the headlines. The practical concern is therefore the November–March rainy season, when a strong El Niño typically tilts the odds toward intense, short-duration storm systems that can overwhelm drainage and flood-prone infrastructure even if total seasonal rainfall stays near average.
3.1 mm vs 2.8 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Israel's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall percentage anomaly applies; articles instead warn that the coming November–March rains could arrive as intense, flood-producing storm events under a strong El Niño.
News source27.23°C mean vs 26.11°C normal
Measured mean temperatures for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +1.1°C above normal, consistent with the background warming that articles say will amplify El Niño-driven heat and storm volatility.
The wheat harvest concluded on schedule in May–June, and the winter rains that drive the November–March sowing and growth season are expected to be erratic — heavy downpours interspersed with dry spells — rather than uniformly delayed.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (31.5°, 35.1°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Israel and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wheat harvest finished on schedule in May–June, but erratic, high-intensity winter rains could disrupt November–March sowing and damage late-season crops.
Heavy storm bursts may recharge the Sea of Galilee and coastal aquifer quickly, yet increased runoff and flash flooding could reduce effective infiltration and threaten drainage systems.
Flooding raises waterborne disease and injury risks, while storm-related heat and humidity spikes can increase heat stress for vulnerable populations.
Flooding, high winds and hail pose risks to power transmission, solar installations and coastal infrastructure, with potential localised outages.
Storm surges, rough seas and coastal runoff are expected to disrupt Mediterranean fishing operations and can degrade nearshore water quality.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Israel responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño winter produced heavy rainfall episodes and flood damage in parts of Israel, reinforcing the pattern of high-intensity storm events during such years.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record was linked to intense Mediterranean storm systems and localised flooding across Israel during the winter months.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño coincided with an unusually stormy eastern Mediterranean winter, bringing repeated flooding to coastal and low-lying Israeli communities.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSIsraeli weather service warns of 'unprecedented' storm due to super El Niño
El Niño could bring deadly floods, vicious winds, huge hailstones to Israel
Israel braces for extreme El Niño with flood, snow and storm risks
Israel Braces for a Stormy Winter as Forecasters Warn of Record El Niño
Israeli media are reporting that emergency services are being pre-positioned for what forecasters describe as the strongest El Niño on record, with warnings of deadly floods, vicious winds and huge ha
“Super El Niño” could bring once-in-a-century floods to Israel, meteorologists warn
Nearby
Neighbouring countries