Lebanon
Score moved 2 → 3 . “Forecasters warn of a stormy Mediterranean winter as a powerful El Niño builds”
Lebanon is in its normal dry season, so the El Niño signal is showing up mainly in forecasts for the coming winter rains rather than in current rainfall deficits. Regional outlets warn that a strong El Niño could drive unusually heavy storms across the eastern Mediterranean, even as measured temperatures for July–October 2026 stayed only about +0.5°C above normal. The practical concern is therefore a wetter, stormier November–March period that could disrupt wheat sowing, flood infrastructure and strain an already fragile water and power sector.
44.5 mm vs 7.4 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Lebanon's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies; articles instead warn that a strong El Niño could bring an unusually wet and stormy start to the November–March rains.
News source25.8°C mean vs 25.33°C normal
Measured mean temperatures for early July to early October 2026 ran about +0.5°C above normal, a modest warming consistent with the weak canonical El Niño signal for Lebanon rather than the 'unprecedented' extremes some regional headlines suggest.
News sourceThe wheat harvest (May–June) is already complete and the winter cropping cycle remains on schedule, with the main El Niño risk being a wetter-than-normal sowing window from November onward.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (33.8°, 35.8°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Lebanon and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A wetter-than-normal winter could delay or waterlog wheat sowing and damage late-season crops, though it may also recharge soils after the dry season.
Heavy winter storms could bring both welcome reservoir recharge and flash-flood risk to Lebanon's ageing water infrastructure.
Flooding and standing water may raise the risk of waterborne disease, while storm damage could disrupt access to health services.
Storm damage to transmission lines and higher heating demand during a wet, unsettled winter could add further strain to Lebanon's fragile power grid.
Stormier seas and rougher winter conditions are expected to shorten safe fishing days along the Lebanese coast.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Lebanon responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño year saw warm Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures and unsettled winter weather, adding pressure on Lebanon's water and energy sectors.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to erratic Mediterranean rainfall, with Lebanon experiencing a notably dry winter followed by intense storm episodes.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought heavy winter storms and flooding to parts of the eastern Mediterranean, straining infrastructure and agriculture.
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Lebanon Braces for a Stormy El Niño Winter as Regional Forecasters Warn of Extreme Weather
Lebanon is in its normal dry season, so the El Niño signal is showing up mainly in forecasts for the coming winter rains rather than in current rainfall deficits. Regional outlets warn that a strong E
Nearby
Neighbouring countries