Yemen
Narrative updated. “Aid agencies warn a super El Niño could tip Yemen's food and nutrition crisis into freefall”
Aid agencies including Action Against Hunger and Islamic Relief are warning that the emerging 2026 super El Niño could deepen Yemen's food and nutrition crisis, with the European Commission's ASAP system issuing widespread crop warnings for the second half of the year. The July–October window is Yemen's normal dry season, so no rainfall anomaly is measurable, but the canonical El Niño signal points to enhanced October–December rains and flash-flood risk, while measured temperatures already ran +1.2°C above normal. Peak impacts are expected December–March, threatening delayed planting, damaged winter cereals and further strain on water, health and energy systems in a country with minimal coping capacity.
28.4 mm vs 3.1 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Yemen's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies; articles instead project enhanced October–December rains and flash-flood risk as El Niño strengthens.
News source28.42°C mean vs 27.23°C normal
Measured mean temperatures ran +1.2°C above normal for the July–October window, consistent with the broader warming that articles say will intensify heat stress and crop water demand.
News sourceArticles warn of delayed and disrupted planting, with ASAP crop warnings issued for the second half of 2026 and peak El Niño effects expected December–March, pushing winter cereal and vegetable calendars off schedule.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (15.0°, 48.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Yemen and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
ASAP crop warnings for the second half of 2026 point to delayed planting and yield losses in sorghum, wheat and vegetables, compounding existing food insecurity.
Enhanced October–December rains could bring flash floods and contamination of water sources, while dry-season scarcity and +1.2°C heat raise evaporation and irrigation demand.
Flooding is expected to raise cholera and waterborne disease risk, while heat stress and worsening nutrition deepen vulnerability, especially among children.
Higher temperatures drive up cooling demand and strain already fragile power supplies, while floods risk damaging grid and fuel infrastructure.
Warmer coastal waters and stronger storm surges may disrupt fishing days and damage small boats and landing sites along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Yemen responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to erratic rainfall and flooding in parts of Yemen, disrupting agriculture and displacing communities already affected by conflict.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño conditions coincided with intensified conflict and a major food security crisis, with flooding and disease outbreaks compounding humanitarian needs.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought heavy October–December rains and flash floods to Yemen, damaging crops and infrastructure in an already vulnerable context.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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