United Arab Emirates
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Strong El Niño meets the Gulf's dry season — what it means for the UAE's winter rains and farms”
The UAE is in its climatological dry season from July to October, so no rainfall anomaly is meaningful, but measured temperatures ran +1.6°C above normal for 9 July–6 October 2026. The UN Secretary-General has warned that a strong El Niño is 'adding fuel to a planet already on fire', and Berkeley Earth's August 2026 update confirms global heat records, while analysis of the April 2024 extreme rainfall event shows the UAE remains exposed to rare but severe flood episodes. For agriculture, the wheat harvest finished on schedule in May–June and attention now turns to the November–March winter rains, which a strong El Niño could tilt drier or more erratic.
8.9 mm vs 1.6 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is the UAE's climatological dry season, so no meaningful rainfall anomaly applies; attention shifts to the November–March winter rains, which the strong El Niño background may influence.
36.85°C mean vs 35.26°C normal
Measured mean temperatures for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran +1.6°C above normal, consistent with the global warmth described in the August 2026 Temperature Update and the UN Secretary-General's warning that a strong El Niño is 'adding fuel to a planet already on fire'.
News sourceThe agricultural calendar remains on schedule, with the wheat harvest completed in May–June and winter rains due from November; the main risk is heat and water stress on winter planting rather than a shift in timing.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (24.0°, 54.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for United Arab Emirates and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wheat harvest completed on schedule, but winter planting from November may face heat and soil-moisture stress if the strong El Niño suppresses seasonal rains.
Desalination and groundwater recharge depend on winter rains; a drier-than-normal November–March would raise reliance on energy-intensive desalination.
Prolonged heat raises heat-stress and dehydration risks for outdoor workers, while dust and humidity shifts can aggravate respiratory illness.
Above-normal temperatures (+1.6°C) drive higher cooling demand and desalination load, increasing peak electricity and water production requirements.
Warmer coastal waters linked to El Niño can shift fish migration and stress coral and nursery habitats in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how United Arab Emirates responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño background preceded the April 2024 extreme rainfall event over the UAE, which caused widespread flooding and highlighted the country's vulnerability to rare intense storms.
Source2015-16
Strong El Niño coincided with global heat records and regional warmth; UAE experienced a hot, dry winter with limited rainfall recharge.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought global temperature spikes and erratic regional rainfall, with the Gulf largely missing out on winter rains.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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Strong El Niño Lifts UAE Heat by 1.6°C as Winter Rain Outlook Takes Centre Stage
The UAE is currently in its climatological dry season, with the July–October window delivering little to no meaningful rainfall, so the El Niño signal for the country remains weak even as global ENSO
August 2026 Temperature Update
Strong El Nino 'adding fuel to a planet already on fire', warns UN chief
Nearby
Neighbouring countries