Laos
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Laos flagged El Niño risks for its 2026 rainy season months before the UN warned the event would peak in December”
Laos issued a formal warning in May 2026 about El Niño's impact on the 2026 rainy season, joining a region bracing for erratic rainfall and drought. Regional reporting through September describes a "supersized" El Niño straining Southeast Asia's energy transition and worsening drought across Asia with knock-on risks to global food security, while the UN projects the event will intensify and peak in December. Measured conditions over July–October 2026 show rainfall at +55% of normal and temperatures only +0.1°C above average, so the dry-season window itself has not yet delivered the severe deficits the headlines anticipate.
1441.7 mm vs 928.2 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall across Laos from 9 July to 6 October 2026 at +55% versus the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming southwest monsoon rains rather than a percentage anomaly.
23.94°C mean vs 23.8°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same July–October window ran just +0.1°C above normal, a muted signal that contrasts with the severe heat and drought impacts described in regional El Niño reporting.
El Niño typically makes Laos drier. Observed rainfall is running +55% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.0°, 105.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Laos and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wet-season rice planting and the November–December harvest face risk from erratic monsoon timing and dry spells, with the government warning farmers ahead of the 2026 rainy season.
Reservoir and river levels could come under pressure if the projected December peak of El Niño suppresses late-monsoon rainfall, affecting irrigation and domestic supply.
Drought-related water scarcity and heat stress are expected to raise risks of waterborne disease and nutrition shortfalls in rural communities.
Hydropower-dependent Laos is exposed to reduced inflows, and regional coverage notes El Niño is testing Southeast Asia's renewables transition as demand for cooling rises.
Lower Mekong flows and reduced flood-pulse extent would likely shrink fish habitat and catch sizes, hitting riverine and reservoir fishing communities.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Laos responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions brought below-normal rainfall and heat across parts of Southeast Asia, with Lao authorities monitoring impacts on agriculture and water resources.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño contributed to drought and reduced Mekong flows, stressing rice production and hydropower generation in Laos and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop losses across mainland Southeast Asia, including Laos, with significant rice shortfalls.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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