China
Narrative updated. “Beijing's own forecasters call it the strongest on record — and the south is already wetter than normal”
Chinese forecasters have warned that the developing El Niño could rank among the strongest ever recorded, with sea surface temperatures rising faster than in most historical events. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 already show rainfall 21% above the 1991–2020 normal and temperatures 0.7°C above average, matching the canonical El Niño pattern of a wetter south and Yangtze basin with a milder winter. The main risk window lies ahead in the December–February peak, when drought in the north, flooding in the south and winter haze are all expected to intensify.
288.8 mm vs 238.8 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 21% above the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, consistent with the canonical El Niño signal of a wetter south and Yangtze basin, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm.
News source17.71°C mean vs 17.05°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 0.7°C above normal, in line with the mild-winter tendency that articles associate with a strong El Niño.
News sourceThe autumn harvest is expected to proceed broadly on schedule, with the main El Niño risk concentrated in the December–February peak that follows planting and precedes the 2027 summer monsoon.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (35.0°, 105.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for China and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Autumn harvest is expected to stay on schedule, but the December–February peak threatens winter wheat and rapeseed in the north while southern rice and vegetable belts face waterlogging and disease pressure.
Reservoir operators in the Yangtze basin are likely to manage higher inflows and flood risk, while northern catchments may see below-normal recharge heading into spring.
Milder, stagnant winter conditions are expected to worsen air quality and respiratory illness in northern cities, while southern flooding raises waterborne and vector-borne disease risk.
A mild winter would trim heating demand in the north, but hydropower output in the south could swing sharply with heavier or more erratic rainfall.
Warmer coastal waters are expected to shift migratory fish stocks and disrupt aquaculture in the Yellow and East China Seas, with southern coastal farms most exposed.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how China responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño that contributed to a warm, dry northern winter and above-normal southern rainfall, with knock-on effects on winter wheat and hydropower planning.
unsourced background2015-16
A super El Niño that brought record warmth, a mild winter and heavy southern rainfall, straining flood defences along the Yangtze and disrupting winter crops.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with severe Yangtze basin flooding and a mild, hazy winter across northern China.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSChina Braces for Record-Strength El Niño as Southern Rains Run 21% Above Normal
Chinese forecasters have warned that the developing El Niño could rank among the strongest ever recorded, with sea surface temperatures rising faster than in most historical events. Measured condition
El Niño modulated Holocene hydroclimate extremes as a dipolar pattern of droughts in northeastern China and floods in southwestern China
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Nearby
Neighbouring countries