Nepal
Score moved 7 → 6 . “Kathmandu readies contingency plans as a supercharged Pacific warming bears down on the monsoon calendar”
Nepali agencies are drafting contingency plans for a possible "Super El Niño" after the UN weather agency warned that strong Pacific warming would intensify from August 2026. The supplied reports focus on preparedness, glacier retreat and global child exposure, with UNICEF estimating 347 million children worldwide face heightened risk from El Niño conditions. Measured conditions over 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall at +124% of normal and temperatures 0.2°C below average, a wetter and cooler signal than the canonical El Niño drying pattern the articles anticipate for the coming seasons.
1572.3 mm vs 700.7 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall at +124% of the 1991–2020 normal, a wet anomaly that runs counter to the canonical El Niño drying signal and to the drought framing in several of the supplied reports.
22.42°C mean vs 22.58°C normal
Mean temperature over the same window came in at -0.2°C versus normal, so the strong ONI (+2.16) has not yet translated into the heat stress the articles anticipate.
El Niño typically makes Nepal drier. Observed rainfall is running +124% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (28.0°, 84.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Nepal and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Kharif harvest and Rabi planting are the exposed windows, with a weaker, later monsoon likely to cut soil moisture for winter crops even after a wet July–October.
Reservoir and spring recharge should benefit from the measured wet anomaly, but a delayed 2027 monsoon onset could tighten dry-season supply in the hills.
Disease-vector expansion, heat stress and child nutrition are the main concerns, with UNICEF flagging children among the most exposed groups globally.
Hydropower generation is likely to hold up through the current wet window, with risk shifting to reduced dry-season inflows if the monsoon retreats early.
Warmer river and pond temperatures plus erratic flows are expected to stress inland aquaculture and wild catch, particularly in the Terai.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Nepal responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño year brought below-normal monsoon rainfall to parts of Nepal, with knock-on effects on irrigation and hydropower inflows.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest events on record coincided with a deficient monsoon in Nepal, depressing paddy output and prompting winter drought concerns.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño was associated with a weak and erratic Nepali monsoon, contributing to winter crop shortfalls and dry-season water stress in the hills.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSUNICEF: El Niño threatens 347 million children worldwide
Nepal prepares for climate risks from possible Super El Niño event
Nepal Braces for Super El Niño as Forecasters Warn of a Weaker, Later Monsoon
Nepali agencies are drafting contingency plans for a possible "Super El Niño" after the UN weather agency warned that strong Pacific warming would intensify from August 2026. The supplied reports focu
UN weather agency warns strong El Nino to intensify from August
Nepal's collapsing glacier. L.A.'s humid heat wave. A supercharged El Niño. Why does the weather suddenly feel so weird?
Nearby
Neighbouring countries