India
Score moved 8 → 7 (severe impact → high impact). “Weakest monsoon in nearly two decades meets a strengthening El Niño — and the Rabi window is next”
India has just recorded its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with measured rainfall 23% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026 as El Niño strengthened. Temperatures over the same period ran 0.5°C above normal, and forecasters warn a 'super El Niño' could make the monsoon drier yet more dangerous, with the WMO projecting very strong conditions into 2027. The immediate concern is a delayed and reduced Kharif harvest that would compress the Rabi sowing window in November–December.
423.7 mm vs 553.3 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in 23% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with Reuters reporting India's weakest monsoon in nearly two decades as El Niño strengthened.
News source26.04°C mean vs 25.55°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran 0.5°C above normal, with The Conversation warning a 'super El Niño' could make India's monsoon drier yet more dangerous through heat extremes.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes India drier. Observed rainfall is running -23% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (20.0°, 77.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for India and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Kharif yields are expected to fall and harvest to slip, with the Rabi sowing window at risk of being compressed by late-season dryness.
Reservoir and groundwater recharge are likely to lag after a 23% rainfall deficit, raising the prospect of irrigation and drinking-water curbs in the coming months.
Drier, hotter conditions are expected to worsen heat stress and nutrition outcomes while erratic rainfall raises the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks.
Lower reservoir levels are projected to cut hydropower output while heat-driven cooling demand pushes thermal generation and grid stress higher.
Warmer coastal waters and shifting monsoon-driven currents are expected to disrupt traditional fishing calendars and near-shore catch.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how India responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions weakened the 2023 monsoon and left reservoir storage below normal, setting up concerns for the following Rabi season.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to back-to-back deficient monsoon years in India, with widespread drought declarations and pressure on rural incomes.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record coincided with a markedly deficient Indian monsoon, cutting Kharif output and triggering drought relief across several states.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSA ‘super El Niño’ could make India’s monsoon drier yet more dangerous
India braces for drought as El Nino looms
El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027
Weakest Monsoon in Two Decades as El Niño Tightens Grip on India
India has just recorded its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with measured rainfall 23% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026 as El Niño strengthened. Temperatures over the same p
India’s monsoon rains in danger as UN chief warns planet is ‘on fire’
Nearby
Neighbouring countries