Bhutan
Score moved 2 → 3 . “A rare "Godzilla" El Niño is rewriting South Asia's monsoon script — and Bhutan's farmers are watching the sky”
A rare, record-strength El Niño has formed, with global coverage warning of "Godzilla strength" conditions and South Asia expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall. Yet measured conditions in Bhutan for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 25% above the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures about 0.9°C above normal, a reminder that El Niño's canonical signal for Bhutan is weak. The Kharif calendar stayed broadly on schedule, but fishers and farmers remain exposed to fuel-cost pressures and any late-season shift in the monsoon as the event peaks.
661.6 mm vs 530 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 25% above the 1991–2020 normal, even as several articles warned of below-average South Asian monsoon rainfall under a strengthening El Niño.
News source13.93°C mean vs 13.07°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 0.9°C above normal, consistent with the warming influence of an El Niño that has reached ONI +2.16.
News sourceKharif planting and the June–September monsoon proceeded broadly on schedule, with the October–November harvest and subsequent Rabi season likely to be shaped by how quickly El Niño conditions decay.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (27.5°, 90.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bhutan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Kharif planting and harvest are on schedule, but a below-average monsoon forecast for South Asia keeps late-season crop and pasture risk elevated.
Above-normal rainfall has eased immediate water stress, though a strong El Niño could still bring erratic dry spells during the Rabi season.
Warmer-than-normal conditions (+0.9°C) raise the risk of heat stress and vector-borne disease expansion, with nutrition security tied to the monsoon outcome.
Hydropower generation benefits from above-normal inflows, but a drying trend later in the season could reduce reservoir recharge.
Fishers face compounding pressure from a looming El Niño and a fuel crisis that raises the cost of every trip, as reported by Dialogue Earth.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bhutan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño that contributed to global temperature records and erratic rainfall patterns across Asia.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño linked to below-average monsoon rainfall in South Asia and water shortages affecting agriculture and hydropower.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with disrupted South Asian monsoons and drought stress across the Himalayan region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSFishers live in fear as looming El Niño and fuel crisis pile on pressure
South Asia is expected to receive below average monsoon rainfall
Record-breaking El Niño looms: China’s weather patterns already impacted
El Niño, Climate Catastrophe, and the Coming Financial Showdown
Super El Niño Looms Over South Asia, but Bhutan's Monsoon Runs Above Normal
A rare, record-strength El Niño has formed, with global coverage warning of "Godzilla strength" conditions and South Asia expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall. Yet measured conditions in
Nearby
Neighbouring countries