Afghanistan
Narrative updated. “Strong El Niño points to a wetter Afghan winter — and a sharper flash-flood risk”
A strong El Niño, with global sea-surface temperature anomalies well above the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to be a key driver of Afghanistan's 2026/27 agricultural season. Articles project a wetter-than-normal winter and spring rainy season, which would favour wheat and rangeland recovery but also raise the risk of flash floods and waterborne disease during the December–March peak. Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 were +2.1°C above normal, and the dry-season rainfall picture is near average, so the decisive signal will be how the coming rains unfold.
3.1 mm vs 10 mm normal — too little rain in this window for a % to mean anything
The July–October window is Afghanistan's climatological dry season, so rainfall is near average by definition, but articles project a wetter-than-normal winter and spring rainy season ahead under strong El Niño conditions.
News source25.07°C mean vs 23°C normal
Measured temperatures for July–October 2026 ran +2.1°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño warming described in the articles.
News sourceThe 2026/27 agricultural season is expected to remain on schedule, with El Niño-driven winter and spring rains likely boosting wheat and rangeland conditions while raising flash-flood risk during the December–March peak.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (33.0°, 65.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Afghanistan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wetter winter and spring rains are expected to improve wheat and rangeland conditions for the 2026/27 season, though excess moisture could delay planting in some flood-prone districts.
Recharge of rivers, karezes and reservoirs is likely to improve, easing the multi-year drought deficit, but sudden heavy rainfall could trigger damaging flash floods.
El Niño-linked flooding is expected to increase waterborne and vector-borne disease risk, and the Q2 2026 GBV update flags heightened protection and nutrition concerns during climate shocks.
Higher water availability should support hydropower generation through 2027, while flood damage to transmission and small hydro infrastructure remains a risk.
Inland fisheries and aquaculture could benefit from higher river and reservoir levels, though flood scouring may disrupt spawning habitats and small-scale fishing operations.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Afghanistan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Strong El Niño conditions coincided with a wetter Afghan winter and spring, boosting wheat prospects while flash floods affected several provinces.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to wetter-than-normal winter and spring conditions across Afghanistan, supporting cereal production but also causing localised flooding.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought unusually wet conditions to Southwest Asia, with heavy winter rains and flooding in parts of Afghanistan and neighbouring countries.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSStrong El Niño Sets Up a Wetter Afghan Winter — and a Flash-Flood Threat
A strong El Niño, with global sea-surface temperature anomalies well above the +0.5°C threshold, is expected to be a key driver of Afghanistan's 2026/27 agricultural season. Articles project a wetter-
What is El Niño and how could it affect weather this year?
Nearby
Neighbouring countries