Pakistan
Score moved 7 → 6 . “A Super El Niño is rewriting Pakistan's monsoon maths — and the numbers are not what the textbook promised”
Pakistan is being pulled into a Super El Niño cycle that the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad frames as a combined climate, economic and human-security risk, with Al Jazeera warning of flood exposure across Asia and Fortune flagging added strain on an already stretched regional fuel market. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 105% above the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures roughly 1.0°C above normal, a wetter and hotter window than the canonical El Niño drying signal would suggest. The Express Tribune's summer heat alert and ReliefWeb's gender-based-violence update underline that the human and health consequences are already being felt, even as the Kharif calendar remains broadly on schedule.
149 mm vs 72.6 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 105% above the 1991–2020 normal, a wetter-than-usual window that sits awkwardly beside the canonical El Niño drying signal and the flood warnings carried in the articles.
News source30.93°C mean vs 29.93°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 1.0°C above normal, consistent with the article reports of a fierce, heat-amplified summer across Pakistan.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Pakistan drier. Observed rainfall is running +105% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (30.0°, 70.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Pakistan and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Kharif planting and the monsoon window remain on schedule, but projected El Niño heat through July–September is expected to stress standing crops and complicate the October–November harvest and Rabi sowing.
Above-normal monsoon rainfall has eased immediate scarcity but raises the risk of flash flooding and reservoir management pressure, while the canonical El Niño drying signal warns of a weaker monsoon in the seasons ahead.
Sustained heat and erratic rainfall are expected to raise heat-stress cases, expand vector-borne disease risk and worsen nutrition outcomes, with women and girls facing heightened protection risks in emergencies.
Heat-driven cooling demand is expected to push power loads higher while regional fuel-market strain, as reported by Fortune, adds cost pressure to generation and imports.
Warmer coastal and offshore waters are likely to shift fish migration and reduce catch volumes, with small-scale fishing communities in Sindh and Balochistan most exposed.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Pakistan responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño-influenced rainfall variability and a fierce summer tested Pakistan's flood and heat-response capacity, reinforcing the pattern of climate-driven human-security risk highlighted in current reporting.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought heat extremes and erratic monsoon behaviour to Pakistan, with knock-on losses in agriculture and livestock productivity.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño contributed to a weak monsoon and drought-like conditions across Pakistan, cutting Kharif output and straining rural water supplies.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEl Nino alert: summer turns fierce
Asia is already grappling with a fuel crisis. A ‘Super El Nino’ threatens to make things worse
Super El Niño Bears Down on Pakistan: Hotter Summer, Wetter Monsoon and a Harder Harvest Ahead
Pakistan is being pulled into a Super El Niño cycle that the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad frames as a combined climate, economic and human-security risk, with Al Jazeera warning of flood e
Nearby
Neighbouring countries