Bangladesh
Score moved 2 → 3 . “ONI at +2.16 but Bangladesh's El Niño signal stays weak — what the monsoon holds is the real question”
Bangladesh enters the 2026 El Niño season with a weak canonical signal despite a global ONI of +2.16, and analysts quoted in the press expect the country to escape the event's full force. Measured conditions bear this out: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal, while mean temperature was only 0.2°C above normal, and this window is climatologically dry so the coming monsoon rains matter more than the past anomaly. Regional coverage warns that a record El Niño could still drive floods across South and East Asia, and Bangladesh has publicly rejected a $300 billion climate fund as inadequate ahead of a possible 'Super El Niño'.
900.9 mm vs 764.1 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Bangladesh's climatological dry season, so the more meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming monsoon and post-monsoon rains.
News source28.48°C mean vs 28.31°C normal
Mean temperature over the same window was only about 0.2°C above normal, consistent with the weak El Niño signal the articles describe for Bangladesh.
News sourceKharif planting and the June–September monsoon are proceeding broadly on schedule, with the Kharif harvest expected in October–November and Rabi planting in November–December.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (24.0°, 90.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Bangladesh and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Kharif planting and the June–September monsoon are on schedule, but a stronger-than-forecast El Niño could disrupt the October–November Kharif harvest and delay Rabi planting in November–December.
Above-normal dry-season rainfall of +18% has eased immediate moisture stress, yet the key risk remains the timing and volume of the coming monsoon and post-monsoon rains for flood and irrigation management.
Warmer and wetter conditions could raise risks of waterborne disease and vector-borne outbreaks such as dengue, with heat stress a lesser concern given the modest +0.2°C temperature anomaly.
Hydropower and thermal cooling demand could be affected if the monsoon underperforms, while flood risk to power infrastructure remains a secondary concern under a stronger event.
Inland and coastal fisheries face uncertain risk, with El Niño-linked shifts in monsoon timing and river flows potentially affecting breeding cycles and brackish-water aquaculture.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Bangladesh responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño coincided with extreme heat and irregular rainfall across Bangladesh, contributing to crop stress and heightened dengue transmission.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record was associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in parts of South Asia, affecting rice production and rural livelihoods in Bangladesh.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño contributed to erratic monsoon behaviour in Bangladesh, with drought-like conditions in some regions followed by damaging floods, straining agriculture and water management.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSAn Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell: El Niño Status and Humanitarian Outlook (updated 22 June 2026)
Record El Niño threatens to unleash floods across East Africa and Asia
Drowning in Promises: As 'Super El Niño' Looms, Bangladesh Rejects $300B Climate Fund as Inadequate
Weak El Niño Signal for Bangladesh as Region Braces for Record Event
Bangladesh enters the 2026 El Niño season with a weak canonical signal despite a global ONI of +2.16, and analysts quoted in the press expect the country to escape the event's full force. Measured con
Bangladesh may not feel El Niño’s full force
Nearby
Neighbouring countries