Liberia
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Liberia's weak El Niño signal still leaves the 2026 harvest running short of normal”
Global ENSO conditions have strengthened to an ONI of +2.16, well above the +0.5 El Niño threshold, and forecasters warn the Pacific pattern could become 'very strong'. For Liberia, however, the canonical signal remains weak: reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 22% below the 1991–2020 normal while mean temperatures ran roughly 1.8°C above normal. The rainy season, planting and lean season are broadly on schedule, but the October–November harvest is expected to come in below average, with knock-on pressure on water points, inland fisheries and hydroelectric output.
524.9 mm vs 668.8 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 22% below the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the weak El Niño signal expected for Liberia even as global ENSO conditions are strong.
News source25.58°C mean vs 23.8°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same July–October window measured about 1.8°C above normal, a notable warm anomaly for the region.
News sourceThe rainy season (June–September), planting (June–July) and lean season (June–August) are proceeding broadly on schedule, with the October–November harvest expected to be trimmed by the below-normal rains rather than delayed.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (6.5°, -9.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Liberia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Below-normal rains (-22%) and heat (+1.8°C) are expected to trim the October–November harvest, particularly for rain-fed rice and cassava.
Reduced rainy-season recharge is likely to lower river levels and leave some rural water points short during the dry season.
Heat stress and possible water-quality decline could increase dehydration and waterborne disease risk, with nutrition strained by a smaller harvest.
Lower river flows are expected to reduce output at Liberia's Mount Coffee hydropower plant, raising reliance on thermal generation.
Warmer coastal waters and lower river discharge may push inland fish stocks down and disrupt artisanal catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Liberia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Moderate-to-strong El Niño brought warmer-than-normal conditions and uneven rainfall to Liberia, with localized agricultural stress.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño coincided with below-average rains in West Africa, contributing to reduced harvests and higher food prices in Liberia.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record; Liberia experienced a weak signal with drier-than-normal conditions and localized crop shortfalls.
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